The Sked: MONDAY RATINGS February 27

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After stabilizing at a 6.0 for two weeks, NBC’s The Voice dropped to a 5.4 preliminary fast national rating with Adults 18-49 (although it will probably go up to a 5.5 in the official nationals).  By half hour, The Voice started at a 4.6 at 8:00, built to a 5.4 at 8:30, jumped to a 5.6 at 9:00 and a 6.0 at 9:30.  While The Voice might have been hurt somewhat by the re-scheduled Daytona 500 on FOX, NBC had relatively good news at 10 pm.  With absolutely no potential overlap between NASCAR and Broadway musical fans, Smash is showing signs of finding its audience level.  Smash averaged a 2.6 in the first half hour and dropped less than it has the first three weeks within the episode, to a 2.3 rating in the 10:30-11:00 half hour.  For the 10 pm hour Smash averaged a 2.4, up one tenth from last week and holding on to second place behind a lower-than-average Hawaii Five-O and ahead of Castle.  Last year on this night: Chuck (2.2), The Cape (1.5) and Harry’s Law (2.3).      

NBC Mon        High Low  1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27

The four-week track for Smash: 3.8… 2.8… 2.3…2.4.  The forecast was based on an assumption that it would take four weeks to settle into its eventual audience level, but the show appears to have done it in three.  While not a big hit, if Smash can hold a 2.3 rating (and an upper-income index of 135, suggesting a 3.1 rating in $100K+ homes), NBC will be pleased.   

             NBC Monday by Week
             ShowBuzzDaily Forecast & Actual Ratings (18-49)

                            Week1  Week2  Week3  Week4
             The Voice
               Forecast      4.6    4.1    3.6    3.5
               ACTUAL        6.7    6.0    6.0    5.4*
             Smash
               Forecast      3.3    2.7    2.2    1.9
               ACTUAL        3.8    2.8    2.3    2.4*

One can imagine a decent overlap between CBS viewers and NASCAR fans — so it’s not surprising every show in the lineup (except for How I Met Your Mother) is on track for a season low.  Interestingly, Two and a Half Men is now back down to levels where Charlie Sheen repeats were performing during his historic meltdown.  Last year on this night:  How I Met Your Mother (4.1), Mad Love (3.0), Two and a Half Men (3.4), Mike & Molly (3.9) and Hawaii Five-O (2.0).   

ABC was up a tenth of a rating point from last week, maybe a bit of an Oscar glow (and, no surprise, absolutely no hint of an impact from the cars turning left in Daytona last night).  Last year on this night, ABC averaged a 3.7 rating: The Bachelor (3.8) and Castle (3.6). 

FOX had a great Monday thanks to bad weather in Florida that delayed the Daytona 500 from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon and finally to Monday night.  The race is averaging a 4.5 in the preliminary fast nationals, and that number should rise to a high-4 rating once the Western time zones are adjusted.  Last year on this night, FOX averaged a first-place 3.8 rating with a healthy House (5.0) and Chicago Code (2.6).   

FOX Mon        High Low  1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13 2.20 2.27

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