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Rise of the Planet of the Apes should open easily at #1 with over $43 million. With broadly positive reviews behind it, this prequel should have decent holds in the following few weeks. The Smurfs should slide into #2 with a decent second week decline ($21 million, down 41%). Fighting for #3 should be the new comedy The Change-Up ($18.5 million) and Cowboys & Aliens ($16.5 million, down 55%). All in all, the weekend should be up over 25% versus the same weekend last year (the fourth up weekend in a row).
At about 2,700 theaters, The Change-Up should average a somewhat above par $6,900 (for $18.5 million this weekend). The R-rated body-switch comedy has received mostly negative reviews so far, 30% positive at RottenTomatoes.See Mitch Salem’s review here.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
August 5-7 Positive Weekend Total*
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox PG13 85% $ 43.5 $125
The Change-Up Uni R 30% $ 18.5 $ 60
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The Smurfs should drop a better-than-average 41% in its second weekend, while Cowboys & Aliens should decline a steeper 55%. The blessing of a family film and the curse of the sci-fi genre.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
August 5-7 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
The Smurfs Sony -41% $21 $121
Cowboys & Aliens Uni -55% $16.5 $ 98
Captain America Par -50% $13 $179
Cowboys & Aliens Uni -55% $16.5 $ 98
Captain America Par -50% $13 $179
Harry Potter Deathly 2 WB -48% $11.5 $361
Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB -40% $11.5 $ 72
Friends with Benefits Sony -47% $ 5 $ 63
Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB -40% $11.5 $ 72
Friends with Benefits Sony -47% $ 5 $ 63
Horrible Bosses WB -39% $ 4.5 $120+
Transformers 3 Par/DW -45% $ 3.5 $363
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $126 million total, ranking 23rd of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $123 million, and the year before was $132 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like another up weekend at $155 million, up more than 25% from this weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8.6.10
The Other Guys SONY PG13 Will Ferrell Mark Wahlberg
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $119 Actual: $119
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $51
Step Up 3-D DIS PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $42
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $117
8.7.09
G.I. Joe: The Rise of the Cobra PAR PG13 Dennis Quaid Sienna Miller
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $50 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $151 Actual: $150
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $152
Julie & Julia SONY PG13 Meryl Streep Amy Adams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $94
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $35
A Perfect Getaway UNI R Milla Jovovich Steve Zahn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday’s early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.
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