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Captain America and the final Harry Potter film’s second weekend will battle for #1, with each around $60 million. Friends with Benefits should open at a decent level for an R-rated comedy. The weekend should be up well over 20% from this weekend last year when Salt and Ramona & Beezus opened (remember those?).
Opening at more than 3,500 theaters, Captain America: The First Avenger should average a solid $16,500 per theater (for $58 million for Friday-Sunday). Critical reception so far has been slightly positive, 60% positive at RottenTomatoes. Read Mitch Salem’s review of Captain America here.
Opening at more than 3,500 theaters, Captain America: The First Avenger should average a solid $16,500 per theater (for $58 million for Friday-Sunday). Critical reception so far has been slightly positive, 60% positive at RottenTomatoes. Read Mitch Salem’s review of Captain America here.
At about 2,700 theaters, Friends with Benefits should average an above par $8,400 (for $22.5 million this weekend). The R-rated comedy has also received slightly positive reviews, 58% positive at RottenTomatoes. See Mitch Salem’s review here.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
July 22-24 Positive Weekend Total*
Captain America Par PG13 60% $ 58 $168
Friends with Benefits Sony R 58% $ 22.5 $ 78
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 will fight with Captain America to stay in the #1 position in its second weekend, down an estimated 63% from last Friday-Sunday. Although Harry set the opening weekend record last week, remember the weekend number was incredibly front-loaded toward Friday. Previous opening weekend record holders Dark Knight and Spider-Man 3 declined 53% and 61% in their second weekend, respectively.
Horrible Bosses and Transformers: Dark of the Moon will fight for fourth place, each now headed for the $11 million level.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
July 22-24 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Transformers 3 Par/DW -50% $11 $373
Harry Potter Deathly 2 WB -63% $63 $435
Horrible Bosses WB -38% $11 $109
Zookeeper Sony -32% $ 8.5 $ 71
Winnie the Pooh Dis -33% $ 5.5 $ 32
Cars 2 Dis -38% $ 5 $188
Bad Teacher Sony -45% $ 3 $102
Larry Crowne Uni -51% $ 1.5 $ 37
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $161 million total, ranking 7th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $155 million, and the year before was $142 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like another up weekend at $191 million, up more than 20% from this weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.23.10
Salt SONY PG13 Angelina Jolie Live Schreiber
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $38 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $122 Actual: $118
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $175
Ramona and Beezus FOX G Joey King Selena Gomez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $29 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
7.24.09
G-Force DIS PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $32
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $111 Actual: $119
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $167
The Ugly Truth SONY R Katherine Heigl Gerard Butler
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $85 Actual: $89
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $116
Orphan WB R Peter Sarsgaard Vera Farmiga
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $42
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $35
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday’s early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.
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