May 8, 2011

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES MAY 6-8: Thor and Fast Five Carry the Weekend

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Thor opens solidly but not enough to push the weekend past Iron Man 2’s torrid pace last year.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Thor should finish its run with $190 million, while Fast Five has been upgraded to $212 million and Rio has been downgraded slightly to $138 million.  The other openers, Jumping to Broom and Something Borrowed are in the $30-35 million total domestic range.

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Thor opened with $66.0 million, averaging a very good $16,700 per theater at 3,955 theaters.  Jumping the Broom opened with $13.7 million, playing on 2,035 theaters and averaging $6,700.  Something Borrowed opened with $13.2 million, averaging $4,500 per theater at 2,904 theaters.    

May 6-8, 2011                       Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
Thor                      (Par)     $66               $190
Fast Five                 (Uni)     $32.5   -62%      $212
Something Borrowed         (WB)     $13.2             $ 32
Jumping the Broom        (Sony)     $13.7             $ 35
Rio                       (Fox)     $ 8.2   -45%      $138
Water for Elephants       (Fox)     $ 5.6   -40%      $ 56
Madea’s Big Happy Family   (LG)     $ 3.9   -60%      $ 54
Prom                      (Dis)     $ 2.4  
-49%      $ 12
Soul Surfer              (Sony    $ 2.1   -38%      $ 41
Hoodwinked Too!         (Weins)     $ 1.9   -54%      $  9

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Early International View

So far, Thor has grossed $133 million overseas, while Fast Five is at $111 million total.  (Note: international numbers will be updated and tallied late Monday or early Tuesday.)

Total Weekend Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $152 million total, down 11% from last year but up 15% from the average for this weekend the last four years.  The year-to-date numbers will be updated tomorrow when the official weekend numbers are in. 

Top 12 Films: First Full Weekend of May
2011  $152  (
+15% vs 2007-10 average; -11% vs 2010) 

Avg   $132 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $171  Iron Man 2 $128, Babies $2

2009  $143  Star Trek $75, Next Day Air $4
2008  $118  What Happens in Vegas $20, Speed Racer $18
2007  $ 96  28 Weeks Later $10, Georgia Rule $7, Delta Farce $3

The Week Ahead

Opening next week are the comedy Bridesmaids from Universal and action horror Priest from Sony.  These movies will be compared against Robin Hood‘s $36 million opening on 5.14.2010, Letters to Juliet with $13.5 million, and Just Wright with $8 million.  Next weekend will be a good opportunity for 2011 to get back on track with another up weekend.

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release. 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.