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| Three Muppets at a Rehearsal |
Thanksgiving weekend brings three well-reviewed family/ holiday entries and a mild expansion for a comedic-drama with Oscar hopes. Total box office volume should be around $161 million for the three-day portion of the weekend, down about 6% from the same weekend last year when Tangled and Burlesque opened and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 continued very solidly in its second weekend. Last year the top two films grossed almost $50 million each, while this year the top two will be closer to $40 million each.
Opening at 3,376 theaters, Arthur Christmas from Sony should average a very mediocre $4,960 per theater (for $17.0 million Friday-Sunday and $23 million Wednesday-Sunday). The animated family holiday film is 94% positive at RottenTomatoes, but the audience does not seem attracted to it based on tracking studies — the animation quality does look pretty poor in TV commercials, particularly the renderings of human faces. Arthur Christmas is headed for around $90 million domestically, if it’s lucky.
With a fairly limited release (1,277 theaters), Hugo from Paramount and Martin Scorcese should average a just okay $6,070 per theater during the three-day weekend ($8.0 million Friday-Sunday and $11 million Wednesday-Sunday). Continuing the trend of quality this weekend, Hugo has received a stellar 96% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes so far. If word of mouth is great and builds just as the theater count expands toward Christmas, Hugo could surprise. But right now it is looking like a $40 million picture domestically.
Who would have thought the next movie from Sideways director Alexander Payne would have the lowest positive review score of the films opening or expanding significantly this weekend? The Descendants (starring George Clooney and filled with Oscar buzz) has 91% positive at RottenTomatoes — a very good score but lower than the three openers. Moving from 29 to around 500 theaters, The Descendants should average around $8,300 per theater this weekend ($4.2 million from Friday-Sunday and over $7 million since its opening).
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
November 25-27 Positive Weekend Total*
The Muppets Dis PG 98% $35.0 $140
Arthur Christmas Sony PG 94% $17.0 $ 90
Hugo Par PG 96% $ 8.0 $ 40
The Descendants Fox R 91% $ 4.5 $ 26
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 will plummet over 70% this weekend (typical for a very front-loaded Twilight film) but still should have enough in the tank to hold off those annoying Muppets. It should be an interesting race for the top spot — the Muppets certainly have intense fans but we shall see how wide the base is.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
November 25-27 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1Sum -71% $39.5 $310
Happy Feet Two WB -11% $19.0 $135
Immortals Rel -38% $ 7.7 $ 91
Puss in Boots DW/Par -17% $ 9.0 $177
Jack and Jill Sony -28% $ 8.5 $ 75
Tower Heist Uni -27% $ 5.2 $ 76
J. Edgar WB -28% $ 4.3 $ 33
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $144 million total, ranking 15th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $171 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $175 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $161 million, down 6% from this weekend last year and up 11% from the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Come back throughout the long holiday weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Thursday through Saturday mornings we will have an early look at how the pre-weekend and weekend are shaping up as a whole, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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