September 2, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Accurate theater counts are in, and we have adjusted the per theater averages, as well as updated critical sentiment as we head into the very slow Labor Day weekend.

Apollo 18 opens today at 3,328 theaters, and we expect a low $4,000 average per theater this weekend (Friday-Sunday only, as we always do).  We have adjusted the weekend total slightly to $13.5 million, making it more likely that The Help will remain at #1.  Early critical sentiment stands at a rather sour 38% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Apollo 18 appears headed for maybe $32 million total domestic.

Shark Night 3D opens today at 2,806 theaters.  We expect a weak $3,300 average and $9.5 million total Friday-Sunday.  Nationwide, early reviews are negative — only 33% positive at RottenTomatoes.  Shark Night 3D will struggle to get to $20 million domestic.

Finally, The Debt will play in 1,826 theaters this weekend, averaging $3,200 per theater Friday-Sunday for about $6 million during the traditional weekend period.  Critics are now 77% positive, and we expect the final to finish with $26 million domestic.  The film opened Wednesday just shy of $1 million (behind The Help‘s $1.8 million for the day), so all of these estimates for the weekend seem reasonable.  

Read the original Weekend Predictions if you missed them.    

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.