Articles

July 20, 2016
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 7.22-24.2016

Weekend #30 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films:

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

July 22-24, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection
Star Trek Beyond Par PG13 93% 66.5 195 255 450
Ice Age: Collision Course Fox PG 15% 35.5 120 770 890
Lights Out WB PG13 94% 16.5 50 55 105
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.  The Overseas Total is also a ShowBuzzDaily projection based on similar movies and their performance outside North America.

 

STAR TREK Track (millions)

Star Trek (5.8-10.2009) $75.2 opening weekend, $257.7 domestic , $127.9 overseas, $385.6 worldwide

Star Trek Into Darkness (5.16-18.2013) $70.2 opening weekend, $228.8 domestic, $238.6 overseas, $467.4 worldwide

ICE AGE Track (millions)

Ice Age (3.15-17.2002) $46.3 opening weekend, $176.4 domestic, $206.9 overseas, $383.3 worldwide

Ice Age: The Meltdown (3.31-4.2.2006) $68.0 opening weekend, $195.3 domestic, $465.6 overseas, $660.9 worldwide

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (7.3-5.2009) $41.7 opening weekend, $196.6 domestic, $690.1 overseas, $886.7 worldwide

Ice Age: Continental Drift (7.13-15.2012) $46.6 opening weekend, $161.3 domestic, $715.9 overseas, $877.2 worldwide

 

TOP RETURNING FILMS

July 22-24, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast  Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Secret Life of Pets Uni -48% 26.3 330
Ghostbusters Sony -58% 19.3 130
Finding Dory Dis -41% 6.7 485
Legend of Tarzan WB -43% 6.6 135
The Purge: Election Year Uni -49% 3.2 86
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates Fox -59% 3.1 52
Central Intelligence WB -43% 3.1 133

 

A look at last week’s opening weekend forecast accuracy:

    • Ghostbusters: $53.0 million predicted and $46.0 million actual
    • The Infiltrator: $5.0 million predicted and $5.3 million actual

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.