OPENINGS: Things couldn’t have gone better for M. Night Shyamalan’s SPLIT (Blumhouse/Universal). It built on its strong Friday with a 13% bump, extremely good for a horror movie, and is estimating $40.2M for its weekend in the US against modest production/marketing costs of about $50M, which means a healthy profit is a sure thing. It’s currently in only 20 overseas markets, where it earned $5.8M for the weekend.
As expected, XXX: THE RETURN OF XANDER CAGE (Huahua/Shanghai/Paramount) was much stronger overseas than in the US. Here it’s claiming a round-number $20M weekend (compared to $44.5M for the first in the franchise and $12.7M for the sequel that lacked Vin Diesel) and probably won’t get much beyond a $50M US total. Internationally, it’s in 53 territories that make up a bit more than half of the world (China, Japan and Korea are among those yet to open, and all may be strong considering the featured Asian cast members), and is starting with a $50.5M weekend. With $175M in production/marketing costs, it’s still got quite a bit of road before it can think about profit, but there is a path to get there.
THE FOUNDER (Weinstein) didn’t get much support from its studio, and despite generally strong reviews it’s failing at the box office with $3.8M at 1115 theatres. Unless it manages a long-shot Best Actor nomination for Michael Keaton on Tuesday, it’s likely to disappear as quickly as a small McDonald’s fries.
THE RESURRECTION OF GAVIN STONE (Blumhouse/Big Top/Universal) didn’t find much traction with its intended Christian audience at $1.4M in 887 theatres, a reminder that even Blumhouse can stub its toe.
20th CENTURY WOMEN (A24) crept into quasi-wide release with an expansion to 650 theatres. With a $2200 per-theatre average, it’s another film that needs some help from the Academy on Tuesday if it isn’t going to fade away.
HOLDOVERS: HIDDEN FIGURES (20th) had the best hold in the Top 10, down just 22% to $16.3M, and poised to hit $100M in about a week, especially if it gets some major Oscar nominations. Its challenge will come overseas, where it hasn’t yet begun its campaign.
SING (Illumination/Universal) is inches away from $250M in the US, and still has a fair amount of gas in its tank after a 37% weekend drop to $9M. Overseas, it’s at $178.6M after an $8.3M weekend in 61 territories, with the UK and France among those still to open.
LA LA LAND (Summit/Lionsgate) is probably going to have a bonanza of nominations this week, and that will help slow its decline, which was 43% this weekend for $8.4M. Like Hidden Figures, it’s about a week away from $100M in the US, and it’s also thriving overseas, where it has $83.7M after a $16.7M weekend in 57 territories and plenty of road ahead, including China, France and Italy.
The story of ROGUE ONE (Lucasfilm/Disney) remains the same. In the US, it fell 48% for a $7M weekend and $512.2M total, likely to top out at $525M or so. Overseas, it’s still struggling to hit a 50/50 split with the US result at $499.1M after a $9M weekend. Its global total has gone over $1B, which to be clear is a fantastic place to be, but it’s not where Disney was hoping to arrive internationally, where it hasn’t even matched Batman v Superman‘s $542.9M and very possibly won’t.
MONSTER TRUCKS (Paramount) is claiming a 36% drop to $7M, but that studio estimate requires an extremely strong Sunday hold (5% where the next most-optimistic Sunday projection is 25%), so we’ll see how the numbers play out on Monday. In any case it’s academic, since the would-be franchise (which is at $19.3M overseas after a $2.4M weekend in 18 territories) has no chance of avoiding deep red ink.
PATRIOTS DAY (CBS/Lionsgate) found no word-of-mouth support and dropped 48% in its 2d wide weekend to $6M, on a path to a $35M US total and a tough sale overseas, where it’s at $2.4M early in its release.
SLEEPLESS (Open Road) fell 56% to $3.8M and probably won’t see $25M in the US.
THE BYE BYE MAN (STX) was impaled by Split, down an ugly-even-for-horror 74% to $3.6M, with a faint hope of reaching $20M.
LION (Weinstein) is still at moderate numbers, but it’s holding quite well, down just 21% with a $3200 per-theatre average at 575 theatres and $1.8M weekend total, and capable of benefiting in a big way from some major Oscar nominations. Its current US total is $16.4M.
LIVE BY NIGHT (RatPac/Warners) is the 2d biggest disaster on the board considering its cost and expectations, down 65% to $1.8M for the weekend and unlikely to see $15M in the US. It’s at $6.5M overseas after a $2.3M weekend in 39 markets.
The saddest story, though, is SILENCE (Paramount), which doubled its theatre count to 1580 and still somehow managed to drop 42% for the weekend to $1.2M and a $5.2M total. Even Oscar nominations will only lessen its inevitable losses.
LIMITED RELEASE: PATERSON (Bleecker Street) widened to 38 theatres with a slow $3300 per-theatre average. JULIETA (Sony Classics) had a $2300 average at 40. THE RED TURTLE (Sony Classics) opened at 3 with a $7300 average.
NEXT WEEKEND: A DOG’S PURPOSE (Amblin/Universal), which has had the worst ride to release since The Birth of a Nation, will stumble into theatres, accompanied by RESIDENT EVIL: THE FINAL CHAPTER (Screen Gems/Sony), which has already earned $35.1M overseas, and GOLD (Weinstein), which once had Oscar hopes. THE SALESMAN (Cohen) enters arthouse release.
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