>Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like only $100 million, down 24% from last year. Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally lower than originally forecast yesterday. After Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol, nothing is really catching fire.
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($131 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($92 million), and Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol ($164 million) have each been adjusted downward.
Among the third week films, New Year’s Eve ($40 million) and The Sitter ($25 million) are holding steady.
December 23-25, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Mission: Impossible 4 (Par) $26.5 +108% $164
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) $17.8 -55% $131
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox) $13.3 -43% $ 92
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony) $13.0 $ 92
Adventures of Tintin (DW/Dis) $ 9.1 $ 79
We Bought a Zoo (Fox) $ 7.8 $ 64
New Year’s Eve (WB/NL) $ 3.0 -59% $ 40
Arthur Christmas (Sony) $ 2.7 -24% $ 58
Hugo (Par) $ 2.0 -45% $ 56
The Muppets (Dis) $ 2.0 -43% $ 87
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Mission: Impossible Film Track Opening Domestic Overseas
Weekend Total Total
Mission: Impossible 5.22.1996 $ 45.4 $181.0 $276.7
Mission: Impossible II 5.24.2000 $ 57.8 $215.4 $331.0
Mission: Impossible III 5.05.2006 $ 47.7 $134.0 $263.8
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very weak $100 million total Friday-Sunday, down 24% from the same calendar weekend last year and even below last weekend’s sub-par $110 million.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #51
2011 $100 M:I 4 $29, Girl Dragon Tattoo $15, Adv Tintin $10
2010 $132 Little Fockers $31, True Grit $25, Gulliver’s Trav $6
2009 $260 Sherlock Holmes $62, Alvin Chipmunks 2 $49
Next Weekend
Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the day Sunday. We will also have preliminary numbers for the Sunday opening of War Horse and The Darkest Hour on Monday.
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