December 30, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #52 is now on pace for $168 million, very similar to the outlook yesterday.  However, Django Unchained and Les Miserables continue to move in opposite directions.  

Yesterday, it looked like both films would be around $29 million for the weekend (with Les Mis only $400,000 behind Django).  But based on Saturday’s actual results, it now appears Django will beat Les Mis by almost $3 million this weekend.  Friday the two movies were very similar ($9.69 million for Django and $9.40 million for Les Mis), but Saturday was a decided victory for Tarantino ($11.35 million for Django and $9.90 million for Les Mis).  Sunday is expected to be a million dollar margin for Django ($9.65 million to $8.73 million for Les Mis).

The two films should continue to diverge.

For additional analysis of the overall box office for this holiday movie season, look for the Holiday Movie Season column later this morning.

Weekend 52: December 28-30, 2012 ($ millions)
Showbuzz Forecast Tue Weekend Estimate Sat am Studio Estimates Sun am Change vs Last Wknd Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Hobbit WB [32.3] 32.5 32.9 -11% 295
Django Unchained Weins [40.5] 29.0 30.7 155
Les Miserables Uni [50.5] 28.6 28.0 145
Parental Guidance Fox [13.0] 14.8 14.8 75
Jack Reacher Par [13.3] 13.8 14.0 -10% 95
This Is 40 Uni [12.7] 12.8 13.2 +14% 85
Lincoln Dis [6.5] 7.5 7.5 +36% 150
The Guilt Trip Par [5.8] 6.7 6.7 +24% 50
Monsters, Inc. 3D Dis [6.0] 6.6 6.4 +33% 50
Rise of the Guardians Par/DW [4.7] 5.2 4.9 -17% 115
Skyfall Sony [4.5] 4.6 4.6 -5% 305
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [3.0] 4.1 4.1 +131% 70
Life of Pi Fox [4.3] 3.7 3.8 -5% 105

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $168 million total Friday-Sunday (similar to yesterday’s estimate), up 7% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 20% from the weak same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #52 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $168 Les Miserables $28.6, Django Unchained $29, Parental Guidance $14.8
2011 $140 no releases
2010 $149 no releases
2009 $209 no releases
2008 $131 no releases
Avg 2008-11 $157

Check back later for the Holiday Season Update and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.