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Underworld Awakening is coming in just under forecast, pulling in $9.4 million Friday and an estimated $23.9 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $25.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast. The fourth Underworld is headed for a preliminary $59 million total domestic, which would put it just behind Underworld Evolution ($62.3 million in 2006) but ahead of Underworld ($51.9 million in 2003) and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans ($45.8 million in 2009).
Red Tails is beating our prediction: opening with $6 million Friday on its way to almost $18 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $14.5 million prediction. The action drama about the Tuskegee Airmen is headed for a preliminary $50 million domestic.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is failing to meet even modest expectations: a little over $3 million Friday and $9.4 million this weekend, below the $12.5 million forecast. The film with Oscar hopes and dreams (cast, director, subject matter right out of the awards playbook) has not wowed critics (an evenly split 50% positive review score at RottenTomatoes) and our forecast of $30 million total domestic does not indicate much mainstream potential.
Haywire is under our fairly weak forecast, $8.7 million opening weekend versus $8.0 million forecast. Finishing at #15 this weekend (outside our chart), The Artist is looking to gross $2.3 million this weekend, averaging a low $3,475 at 662 theaters (expanding from 216 last week). The total gross should stand at $12 million through Sunday.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Underworld Awakening (So)[$25.5] $23.9 $ 9.4 $ 59
Red Tails (Fox) [$14.5] $17.8 $ 6.0 $ 50
Contraband (Uni) [$12.0] $11.9 $ 3.7 $ 74
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$12.5] $ 9.4 $ 3.2 $ 30
Haywire (Rel) [$ 8.0] $ 8.7 $ 2.9 $ 33
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis) [$10.5] $ 7.5 $ 2.1 $ 53–
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$ 7.0] $ 4.9 $ 1.5 $214–
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) [$ 5.0] $ 4.1 $ 1.3 $187
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony)[$ —] $ 3.2 $ 1.0 $109
War Horse (DW/Dis) [$ —] $ 2.9 $ 0.9 $ 86
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $104 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #3
2012 $104 Underworld Awakening $24, Red Tails $18, Ext Loud $9
2011 $ 89 No Strings Attached $20
2010 $128 Legion $17.5, Tooth Fairy $14, Extraord. Measures $6
2009 $130 Underworld Rise Lycans $21, Inkheart $8, Rev. Road $5
2008 $118 Meet the Spartans $18.5, Rambo $18, Untraceable $11
2008-11
Avg $116
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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