OPENINGS: Although unquestionably huge, and sure to be enormously profitable against roughly $250M in production/marketing costs, DEADPOOL 2 (20th) opened on the low end of expectations, about 5% below the first Deadpool at $125M. The sequel has the very reasonable explanation that its forebear had the advantage of a Sunday that was part of a 3-day holiday weekend, but sequels are normally more frontloaded than their predecessors, and massive competition from Solo is just a week away, so D2 may fall further behind the first film’s $363.1M US total. The overseas opening was $176.3M, covering all major markets except China (where, like the original Deadpool, it’s unlikely to be allowed a run for content reasons) and Japan (where Deadpool earned $18.9M). These early numbers suggest an ultimate $750M worldwide, a tad below the original, and with somewhat more cost, but with plenty of room for additional Deadpools (and X-Forces) to come.
The geriatric sex-com BOOK CLUB (Endeavor Content/Paramount) was surprisingly frontloaded for a project aimed squarely at an older audience, taking in 38% of its $12.5M weekend total on Friday. (By comparison, the first wide weekend of Victoria & Abdul earned only 28% of its total on the parallel day.) That suggests a multiple that might be low for the sub-genre, and a US total under $40M. Reportedly, Paramount paid only $10M for the US/UK/France rights, but that number doesn’t including marketing costs, which may bring Book Club to borderline profitability.
SHOW DOGS (Global Road) made a brief stop on its way to home viewing with a $6M weekend.
HOLDOVERS: AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (Marvel/Disney) fell 54% to $28.7M in the face of Deadpool 2, and now seems likely to end its US run around $650M, the #2 Marvel title behind Black Panther, which is continuing to will-it-or-won’t-it toward $700M. Internationally, though, Infinity War has hit $1.22B to date after an $84.4M weekend, almost double Black Panther‘s $645.8M total, and the biggest Marvel movie worldwide by a $300M (and growing) margin. The remaining question is whether it can get to $2B worldwide, which at the moment seems like a bridge too far.
LIFE OF THE PARTY (New Line/Warners), like all the female-skewing titles in the market, was due for a bad weekend drop because of comparisons to Mother’s Day. It was slammed by 57% to $7.7M, and may get to $45M in the US, about 30% below The Boss as Melissa McCarthy’s new lowest-grossing star vehicle. It has $5.8M in minimal overseas release after a $1.3M weekend.
BREAKING IN (Universal) similarly plunged 63% to $6.5M, but at a $40M US total, it’s likely to be a lot closer to profit than Life Of the Party, because of its lower costs. It’s barely in international release, where it has $1.7M.
OVERBOARD (MGM/Pantelion/Lionsgate) had another post-Mother’s Day hangover, down 52% to $4.7M, and aiming for $45M in the US, a decent total for an inexpensive production, but not the breakout hit that had been hoped. It has $12.1M overseas to date.
A QUIET PLACE (Paramount) dipped 37% to $4M in its 7th weekend, on its way to $185M in the US, a mountain of profit. It’s at $120.3M overseas after an $18.8M weekend dominated by $17.7M from China, where horror flicks are rarely allowed to open.
RAMPAGE (New Line/Warners) fell another 57% to $1.5M, likely to come to rest at $95M in the US. Overseas is a different story, though, with $314.5M (almost half from China) after a $4.4M weekend.
LIMITED RELEASE: RBG (Magnolia) has now gone wider than I Am Not Your Negro ever did, hitting 375 locations, where it averaged $3400, considerably better than the $2600 the earlier film averaged at its widest point of 313. That suggests there’s still gas in its tank for further expansion, and with $3.9M to date, RBG can dream about stretching toward $10M. By comparison, POPE FRANCIS: A MAN OF HIS WORD (Focus/Universal) premiered at 348 theatres and averaged just $1400. A 70mm 50th anniversary engagement of 2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY (MGM/Warners) had a robust $50K per-theatre average at 4. FIRST REFORMED (A24) opened well at 4 theatres with a $25K average. ON CHESIL BEACH (Bleecker Street) opened at 4 with a dim $2300 average. DISOBEDIENCE (Bleecker Street) expanded to 247 theatres with a mild $2K average. BEAST (Roadside) widened to 31 and averaged $3300. LET THE SUNSHINE IN (IFC), now at 49 theatres (and also on VOD) averaged $1900. THE SEAGULL (Sony Classics) averaged a quiet $5100 at 13.
NEXT WEEKEND: The major studios are handing Memorial Day weekend to SOLO (Lucasfilm/Disney). The indies aren’t interested either, with MARY SHELLEY (IFC) among the few limited releases.
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