JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM (Legendary/Perfect World/Universal) finally arrived in the US with a $58.4M opening day ($15.3M from Thursday night), according to preliminary numbers at Deadline. If Fallen Kingdom follows the same trajectory as the 2015 Jurassic World reboot, that should mean a $145M weekend, and a $400M+ eventual US total. That’s a lot of money, and there’s no question that Fallen Kingdom, which has already earned $466M overseas, will be extremely profitable on roughly $325M in costs, and that the Jurassic franchise will go on. (The next sequel is already slated for 2021.) But all the eager apologists can’t easily dismiss the fact that this Friday figure is down 29% from the opening day for Jurassic World, and international is also running slower, which may mean a half-billion dollars less worldwide than its predecessor. A similar drop the next time around would shrink profits significantly, so the studio will need to stop the erosion before it gets worse.
There were no other wide openings this weekend, and note that full weekend comparisons with last week may be unusually lower because of last Sunday’s Father’s Day bumps. INCREDIBLES 2 (Pixar/Disney) dropped 64% from last Friday to $25.7M, worse than the 58% Friday-to-Friday drop for Finding Dory. Dory also opened on Father’s Day weekend, so if the trajectory continues, Incredibles 2 should have an $84M weekend, and be on its way to $600M in the US, which would put it at #9 all-time. (By the way, here’s a fun Incredibles 2-related box office factoid: Disney so wanted A Wrinkle In Time to hit $100M in the US that last week, when it paired the two movies at drive-ins nationwide, it took the unusual step of crediting 50% of the resulting box office to Wrinkle, which obviously wasn’t the film driving ticket sales, artificially holding down the Incredibles 2 weekend number by $1.5M or so to help its studio stablemate.)
OCEAN’S EIGHT (Village Roadshow/Warners) held well on its 3rd Friday, down 41% to $3.5M for an $11M weekend, and still on track for $120M in the US.
TAG (New Line/Warners) dropped 53% from last Friday to $2.5M and should have a $7.5M weekend as it heads toward $45M in the US.
DEADPOOL 2 (20th) continued to benefit from strong word of mouth, down 32% to $1.6M on its 6th Friday, for a $5.5M weekend, on its way to $315M in the US.
SOLO (Lucasfilm/Disney), which had a particularly strong Father’s Day, lost 40% Friday-to-Friday to $1.5M and should hit $5M for the weekend, perhaps getting to a $215M US total amid rumors that its relative failure has altered Lucasfilm’s plans for future spin-off movies.
HEREDITARY (A24) lost 50% from last Friday to $1.1M for a $3.5M weekend, and it should crack $40M in the US before it’s done.
SUPERFLY (Screen Gems/Sony) fell 51% from last Friday (which wasn’t its opening day) to around $900K, and it may reach $3M for the weekend and a dim $20M US total.
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (Marvel/Disney) is almost done, down 45% to $800K on its 9th Friday, as it stretches toward a $2.5M weekend and $675M in the US.
WON’T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR (Focus/Universal) expanded to 348 theatres and earned $500K on Friday, which should mean $1.5-2M for the weekend, and it will hope to join RBG in the year’s $10M documentary club.
BOUNDARIES (Sony Classics) stirred little enthusiasm among critics, and it’s heading for a subpar $6K weekend per-theatre average at 5 NY/LA arthouses.
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