After AVENGERS: ENDGAME (Marvel/Disney) torched the record books last weekend, the remaining question was whether it would have the stamina to challenge the biggest records of them all, The Force Awakens in the US ($936.7M) and Avatar worldwide ($2.79B). It’s not clear after Friday whether this weekend will answer that in a definitive way. Preliminary numbers at Deadline have Endgame‘s Friday-to-Friday drop at 74%, to $40.8M. That’s steeper than the 70% drop for Infinity War, and suggests a $149M weekend, neck-and-neck with the $149.2M 2nd weekend of Force Awakens (the record for 2nd weekends). But comparisons with Force Awakens are tricky, because it played during the holiday season, giving it weekend-like numbers on every day of the following week, which Endgame won’t be able to duplicate, and which will eat up Endgame‘s current $74.5M edge over Force Awakens. At the moment, it seems like Endgame will wind up around $925M in the US, but don’t discount Disney’s ability to get the blockbuster across the finish like. As to the worldwide potential, if Endgame‘s split of US vs. international matches Infinity War‘s, at $925M in the US, its global result would be almost exactly the same as Avatar‘s. So this could turn out to be a cliffhanger over the next several weeks.
A trio of mid-level new entries attempted to counterprogram Endgame without much success. Despite mostly strong reviews and the presence of Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron in the leads, LONG SHOT (Good Universe/Lionsgate) didn’t succeed in reviving the rom-com genre with a blah $3.8M Friday. An $11M weekend would be Rogen’s lowest wide release since the $9.9M for The Night Before (also directed by Long Shot‘s Jonathan Levine), and even with good word of mouth, it may not get beyond $45M in the US, in the same neighborhood as the $48.8M for Isn’t It Romantic earlier this year.
THE INTRUDER (Screen Gems/Sony) was the latest low-budget thriller of the season, more or less on target with $4M on Friday and a $10M weekend. It’s claiming a $5M production budget and minimal marketing costs, and with $25M in the US it might break even.
UGLYDOLLS (Alibaba/STX) was supposed to kick off a franchise, but a dull $2.5M Friday suggests an $8M weekend and a $30M US total on worldwide production/marketing costs that will likely approach $100M.
Holdovers stayed low. As was the case last week, CAPTAIN MARVEL (Marvel/Disney) benefited from its richer cousin, down 49% from last Friday to $1.3M for a $4M weekend as it heads to a US total above $425M.
BREAKTHROUGH (20th/Disney) held well, down 42% to $1.1M, on its way to a $4M weekend and a US total that may get past $40M for a very mild level of success.
THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA (New Line/Warners) dropped 62% to $900K, for a $3M weekend and a US total that probably won’t reach $55M, still a win at its budget.
SHAZAM (DC/New Line/Warners) was one superhero movie too many, down 60% to $600K for a $2M weekend and a moderate $140M US total.
LITTLE (Legendary/Universal) fell 61% to $400K, and may have a $1.5M weekend and $40M US total.
DUMBO (Disney) lost 63% to $350K, near the end with a $1.5M weekend and a US total that won’t see $115M.
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