Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 11.27.2022

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OPENINGS:  STRANGE WORLD (Disney) couldn’t muster any significant family audience over the Thanksgiving holiday, with $18.6M for the full 5 days and $11.9M for the 3-day weekend.  Nor did it have appeal overseas, where it managed just $9.2M in 43 territories.  Strange World was a disaster that the studio seems to have seen coming, as it had already announced that the film would hit Disney+ next month.  Nevertheless, with production/marketing costs around $250M, the film will be a painful hit to Disney’s bottom line.  As with live-action spectacles, the failure of Strange World will probably discourage future large-scale animated projects that don’t fit into existing franchises.

There are no official box office numbers for GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY (Netflix), because the streamer regards its 1-week theatrical run as a promo for its premiere on the service in December, and not as an independent profit center for the company, which–for those who may forget–is in the streaming business.  Nevertheless, there are widespread reports that it earned $9.4M over Friday-Sunday, and $13.3M since Wednesday, a tidy amount for a 696-theater release with only moderate marketing.  (The original Knives Out opened at a much wider 3461 theaters over Thanksgiving 2019 and took in $26.8M/$41.4M.)  The film will leave theaters on Tuesday and return at the same time as its online debut.  The Glass Onion experiment didn’t extend to an overseas release.

DEVOTION (Black Label/Columbia/Sony) was unable to lure the hordes that showed up for the jet planes of Top Gun: Maverick, and earned $6M/$9M, not even enough to cover its marketing costs.  (Sony reportedly released Devotion for a fee, although often the US studio in these cases also contributes to the film’s costs.)  There were no openings outside the US.  Devotion also didn’t seem to generate the kind of enthusiasm among critics that would put it in the awards hunt.

It was another dismal weekend for Oscar hopefuls going wide after limited release.  THE FABELMANS (Universal) expanded to 638 theaters with $2.2M/$3.1M, and there are reports that it will shortly be available on PVOD.  The more hopeful spin on The Fabelmans‘ awards prospects is that nearly every other non-blockbuster in the running is flopping in theaters as well (Everything Everywhere All At Once being the exception that proves the rule), so box office may not be as important a factor in this year’s race as it has in others.  The Fabelmans remains US-only at this point.  The film did have the distinction of earning the single most bizarre box office take of the week:  a detailed comparison of the earnings of The Fabelmans with another film about a Jewish family that opened 32 years ago… coming soon, a beat-by-beat breakdown of Avatar 2 with Back To the Future Part III?

The Fabelmans, however, looked like an MCU installment compared to BONES AND ALL (UA/MGM/Amazon), which widened to 2727 theaters for a $2.2M/$3.5M take, the lowest per-theater weekend average in the Top 10.  It also has $2.1M after opening in 28 international markets.

HOLDOVERS:  BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER (Marvel/Disney) had no trouble holding the box office crown over the holiday, down 31% to $45.9M on a weekend-to-weekend basis, and with $64M over the full holiday.  Although Wakanda Forever will be significantly below Black Panther‘s $700.4M US total, it may still reach $500M.  The overseas results are more subdued, with $308M after a $32.1M weekend in all major territories.

THE MENU (Searchlight/Disney) dropped 42% for the weekend to $5.2M, with $7.3M over the full holiday, and should top $30M before it’s done.  Results are similar overseas, where it has $14.8M after a $5.4M weekend in 41 markets.  The Menu has $75M+ in production/marketing costs, though, so it’s not close to profit.

BLACK ADAM (DC/New Line/Warners, also on VOD) held well, down 27% to $3.4M for the weekend and with $4.6M for the holiday.  It still may stretch to $175M in the US, and has $215.1M overseas after a $2.8M weekend in 76 territories.  The question is whether a $400M worldwide total justifies a sequel to a very expensive production.

TICKET TO PARADISE (Universal, also on VOD) dipped 42% to $1.9M for the weekend, with $2.6M for the holiday, and still may reach $75M in the US.  It’s a bigger hit overseas, with $96.8M after a $600K weekend in 79 markets.

The Christian-aimed THE CHOSEN (Angel/Fathom) was massively front-loaded, and plunged 82% to $1.6M for the weekend, with $2.2M for the holiday.  But with its tiny costs, a $15M+ box office result is a big win.  It’s had only a token international release thus far.

SHE SAID (Universal) will probably also hit VOD fairly soon, down 50% to $1.1M in its 2nd weekend and with $1.5M for the holiday.  It’s unlikely to hit $10M in the US, and has $2.1M overseas after a $1.3M weekend in 48 territories.

LIMITED RELEASE:  THE INSPECTION (A24) expanded to 27 theaters with a $2.8K weekend per-theater average.  The acclaimed documentary ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED (Neon) debuted with an $11.1K average at 3 arthouses.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The next 2 weeks are historically weak at the box office, and the lean offerings in wide release include SPOILER ALERT (Focus/Universal) and VIOLENT NIGHT (Universal).  The latest anime release is THE QUINTESSENTIAL QUINTUPLETS MOVIE (Crunchyroll).  Limited releases include THE ETERNAL DAUGHTER (A24).