Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 5.7.2023

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OPENINGS:  GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 (Marvel/Disney) launched with $114M in the US, within tracking expectations but 22% lower than 2017’s Guardians 2, despite marketing that emphasized the end of a beloved (sub-)franchise.  Guardians 2 ended with a 2.66 multiple to its opening, and if Guardians 3 performs the same way, its US total would be barely over $300M, the lowest in the series.  The overseas start was $168.1M in 52 territories, on a somewhat different release pattern than Guardians 2, which opened in 37 markets before the US.  The upshot of the numbers is that Guardians 3 should certainly be profitable on $350M or so in production/marketing costs, but it’s likely to provide more ammunition to the argument that the MCU may have peaked.

LOVE AGAIN (Screen Gems/Sony) probably would have flopped even without superhero competition, but that certainly didn’t help as the rom-com limped to $2.4M, headed toward a US total that won’t even recoup its marketing costs.  No overseas openings yet.

HOLDOVERS:  With the first mega-opening to hit the market in a month, movies already in theaters felt the impact.  THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE (Illumination/Universal) dropped 55% to $18.6M , after 4 weeks where it hadn’t declined more than 37% from the previous weekend.  Of course, no one needs to feel sorry for Super Mario, which should still hit $575M or so in the US.  It continued to be huge overseas, with $50.3M in 79 territories, contributing to a $637.2M international total.

EVIL DEAD RISE (Warners) lost 53% to $5.7M in its 3rd weekend, on its way to a solid $70M in the US.  It also has $43.7M overseas.

ARE YOU THERE GOD?  IT’S ME, MARGARET (Lionsgate) didn’t get the word of mouth bounce it was hoping for, down 50% to $3.4M in its 2nd weekend, and unlikely to get past $25M in the US.  It hasn’t opened internationally, although prospects aren’t high for the US-centric property.

JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 4 (Lionsgate) dropped 52% to $2.4M in its 7th weekend and may reach $190M in the US.  It has $226M overseas.

DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES (Paramount) plunged 64% to $1.5M in its 6th weekend, and may not hit $100M in the US.  Things weren’t much better overseas, where the total is $111.6M.

AIR (Amazon), in its 5th and final theatrical-only weekend, fell 65% to $1.4M, on its way to $55M in the US.  It also has $31.6M overseas.

THE COVENANT (MGM/Amazon) took a 66% hit to $1.2M, and probably won’t see $20M in the US.  The international release thus far has been negligible.

SISU (Lionsgate) was fated for a heavy Weekend 2 drop, and it was down 68% to $1.1M, unlikely to reach $10M in the US.  Its limited international release has taken in less than $500K to date.

LIMITED RELEASE:  CHILE ’76 (Kino Lorber) averaged $8K at 2.  THE EIGHT MOUNTAINS (Variance) expanded to 4 with a $4K average.  RMN (IFC) widened to 41 with an average that didn’t hit $300.  CARMEN (Sony Classics) averaged $400 at 19.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The weekend between Guardians 3 and Fast 10 wasn’t attractive to many studios, the exception being Mother’s Day vehicle BOOK CLUB: THE NEXT CHAPTER (Focus/Universal).  Limited releases include THE STARLING GIRL (Bleecker Street), MONICA (IFC), and IT AIN’T OVER (Sony).