Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 8.4.2019

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OPENINGS:  HOBBS & SHAW (Universal) dropped 13% on Saturday, considerably less frontloaded than the 31% Saturday drops for the last 2 Fast & Furious titles, The Fate Of the Furious and Furious 7.  Both of those shed an additional 29-31% on their first Sundays, and Universal is optimistically assuming a mere 20% drop for Hobbs & Shaw, pushing it to a $60.8M weekend, which means that the number could come down a bit in finals.  Nevertheless, the film delivered as per expectations.  However, with $350M in production/marketing costs, a $150M US total will require the bulk of its revenue to be earned overseas, where Fate Of the Furious took in 82% of its worldwide total.  Hobbs & Shaw had a $120M start in 63 territories, but those didn’t include France, Italy, Korea or especially China, where Fate Of the Furious earned an incredible $392.8M.  If Hobbs & Shaw can have a similar US/international proportion, it will be very profitable.

HOLDOVERS:  THE LION KING (Disney) lost 50% to $38.2M in its 3rd weekend, the same as Beauty & The Beast, although not as good as the 29% Weekend 3 drop for The Jungle Book.  It should top Beauty‘s $504M US total, and with little meaningful family competition the rest of the summer, there could be significant upside.  Overseas, it’s at $764.9M after a $72M weekend in 53 markets, with Italy and Japan still to open.

ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD (Columbia/Sony) dipped 51% to $20M off last week’s opening.  That’s in the neighborhood of the 49% drop for Inglourious Basterds (Django Unchained opened during Christmas week, so it had a different trajectory).  That suggests a $125M US total, higher than any Tarantino except Django, but with an overseas climb ahead to earn back $200M+ in costs.  It hasn’t yet opened outside the US

SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME (Columbia/Sony) dropped 38% to $7.8M in its 5th weekend, and should reach $375M in the US, neck-and-neck with the $373.6M for 2004’s Spider-Man 2 (not adjusted for inflation).  Overseas, it’s at $715M after a $9.5M weekend in 67 markets.

TOY STORY 4 (Pixar/Disney) was still robust in its 7th weekend, down 32% to $7.2M and on its way to $425M, the highest-grossing Toy Story, and Pixar’s #3 title below The Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory.  Toy Story 4 has $549.2M overseas, after a $10.2M weekend in 36 territories.

YESTERDAY (Universal) continued to be a substantial US sleeper, down 21% to $2.4M in its 6th weekend, and likely to reach $75M.  It’s oddly subdued overseas by comparison, with $51M to date after a $2.3M weekend in 32 markets.

CRAWL (Paramount) was down 47% to $2.2M in its 4th weekend, and should get past $40M in the US.  It’s at $17.6M overseas after a $1.5M weekend in 30 territories.

ALADDIN (Disney) is still selling tickets in its 11th week of release, down 34% to $2M as it heads past $350M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at $675.2M after a $4M weekend in 28 territories ,and its worldwide total of $1.03B is behind only Beauty & The Beast and The Lion King among Disney’s remakes.

LIMITED RELEASE:  THE FAREWELL (A24) approached wide release with an expansion to 409 theatres, where it averaged $5900, not quite as good as the $7200 average 3 Billboards had at 614.  LUCE (Neon) kicked off with a fair $27K average at 5 arthouses.  THE NIGHTINGALE (IFC) was less notable with a $20K average at 2.  TEL AVIV ON FIRE (Cohen) launched with a slim $4600 average at 11.  MAIDEN (Sony Classics) expanded slightly to 131 theatres with an $1800 average.  DAVID CROSBY: REMEMBER MY NAME (Sony Classics) averaged $2600 at 29.  SWORD OF TRUST (IFC, also on VOD/streaming) managed a $900 average at 80.

NEXT WEEKEND:  We’re now officially in the dog days of Hollywood’s summer, with plenty of openings but expectations that are relatively low.  Next week’s crop includes the horror flick SCARY STORIES TO TELL IN THE DARK (Lionsgate), crime drama THE KITCHEN (Warners), inspirational THE ART OF RACING IN THE RAIN (20th/Disney), true-life BRIAN BANKS (Bleecker Street) and family fare DORA & THE LOST CITY OF GOLD (Paramount).  Limited releases include AFTER THE WEDDING (Sony Classics) and THE PEANUT BUTTER FALCON (Roadside).