OPENINGS: There wasn’t any good news for this week’s wide releases, and that began with the weekend’s leader, as THE FLASH (DC/Warners) failed to meet even the lowest expectations with a sluggish $55.1M start. (The studio’s 4-day estimate, including the Monday Juneteenth holiday, was an optimistic $64M.) The 3-day total was significantly lower than Black Adam‘s $67M, which immediately killed off that film’s hopes for a franchise. International wasn’t much better, with $75M in 78 territories (almost exactly the same as Black Adam‘s $75.9M). The only potential positive for The Flash is that unusually, it will face no direct competition in its 2nd weekend despite the crowded summer calendar, which may cushion its trajectory. Still, with production and worldwide marketing costs conservatively estimated at $300M+, The Flash may not reach Black Adam‘s $393.3M global total, and that should simplify the new DC regime’s calculations about any need to keep this version of the Flash character in its rotation.
Things were even bleaker for ELEMENTAL (Pixar/Disney), which managed only a sad $29.5M launch. ($33.3M with Monday.) The only reason that’s technically just the 2nd-lowest Pixar opening ever is because the original Toy Story, 28 years ago, opened over Thanksgiving, so by the time it hit its first Friday, it had 2 days and $9.3M in its pocket–and even so it was close, with Toy Story‘s Friday/Saturday Sunday at $29.1M unadjusted for inflation. (Needless to say, the first Toy Story also had a production/marketing pricetag vastly lower than Elemental‘s $300M+.) Internationally, Disney is proceeding in a measured fashion, with $15M in 17 markets thus far.
On a more modest level, THE BLACKENING (Lionsgate) opened with $6M ($7M with Monday), at the low end of expectations. Even with relatively minimal costs, a $20M total in the US may not get it out of red ink. There have been no international openings as yet.
HOLDOVERS: SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE (Marvel/Sony Animation) declined a bit more steeply in its 3rd weekend than might have been expected for a film with such enthusiastic word of mouth, down 50% to $27.8M ($32.4M with Monday). Nevertheless, it’s on track for $350M+ in the US, almost double the total for Into the Spider-Verse. Overseas is lagging behind with $209M after a $27.6M weekend in 60 markets, currently 42% of the global total where Into earned 49% of its worldwide gross internationally.
TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS (Hasbro/Paramount) fell 67% to $20M in its 2nd weekend ($23M with Monday), and may not get much higher than $150M in the US, which would put it about $20M ahead of The Last Knight. However, while Beasts is following the franchise’s norm by being higher overseas than in the US, with $174.3M to date after a $37.2M weekend in 68 territories, it won’t get close to Last Knight‘s $475.3M international total, and ultimately may not stretch much past breakeven. In fact, it may not even match the worldwide $468M for the lower-budgeted spin-off Bumblebee.
As we noted last week, THE LITTLE MERMAID (Disney) was about to reach the point where its close comparison to the box office track of Aladdin might diverge. That happened this weekend, where Mermaid lost 50% to $11.6M in its 4th weekend ($13.3M with Monday), while in the parallel weekend, Aladdin dipped 30% to $17.3M. At this point, it seems like Mermaid may not reach $300M in the US, considerably below Aladdin‘s $355.6M. Internationally, Mermaid has $212.4M after a $15.3M weekend in 52 markets, and won’t come close to approaching Aladdin‘s $695.1M overseas total.
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 (Marvel/Disney) held nicely, down 31% to $5M in it 7th weekend ($5.8M with Monday) and closing in on $360M in the US, midway between the previous installments. The international total is $476.5M after a $2.9M weekend in 52 territories.
THE BOOGEYMAN (20th/Disney) dropped 47% to $3.8M in its 3rd weekend ($4.4M with Monday), and may hit $45M in the US. International was slower, with $18.6M after a $1.8M weekend in 50 markets.
FAST X (Universal, also on VOD) lost almost half its theaters, and tumbled 62% to $2M on its 5th weekend ($2.3M with Monday), perhaps not even reaching $150M in the US. However, the franchise is heavily tilted toward international ticket sales, and it has $534.2M after a $9.3M weekend in 84 territories. The worldwide total should be fairly close to F9‘s $726.2M.
LIMITED RELEASE: The one unquestionably hot title of the weekend was Wes Anderson’s ASTEROID CITY (Focus/Universal), an exceptionally star-studded indie that averaged $132K at 6 NY/LA arthouses (including 1 in LA where it ran in all 5 auditoriums, some of which charged $50 premium ticket prices). The film’s real test will come next week, when it’s scheduled to spread to around 1500 theaters, as Focus will hope for a result like Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel, which averaged $4800 at 1263 theaters and legged out to $59.3M in the US. Asteroid City also earned $1.4M in 18 international territories. PAST LIVES (A24) continued its gradual expansion, averaging $9K at 85.
NEXT WEEKEND: The only new wide opening is the R-rated comedy NO HARD FEELINGS (Columbia/Sony), as Asteroid City jumps into its wide release.
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