OPENINGS: INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR (Screen Gems/Sony) reaffirmed the strength of the low-budget horror genre with a $32.7M start, better than the $29.6M launch of 2018’s The Last Key (which didn’t feature the full original cast). Red Door should reach $65M+ in the US, guaranteeing profitability on a reported $16M production budget and relatively limited marketing. Red Door also started well overseas, with $31.4M in 52 territories.
SOUND OF FREEDOM (Angel) leapt off the shelf it had been sitting on since 2018, via marketing to Christian and conservative audiences, and in part by skirting the edge of box office norms (e.g., counting tickets theoretically bought for unknown others, whether or not actually used). The tactics worked, as the thriller followed a big July 4th opening with an $18.2M weekend, giving it $40.2M to date. The audience skewed older and female, and it remains to be seen whether Freedom will be front-loaded or able to widen its pool of ticketbuyers. In any case, though, it’s sure to be highly profitable on low production costs and focused marketing. No international openings to date.
JOY RIDE (Lionsgate) was unable to capitalize on enthusiastic reviews (91% on Rotten Tomatoes) and buzz out of SXSW, launching at only $5.9M. Even with an indie budget, it may not break even.
HOLDOVERS: INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY (Paramount/Lucasfilm/Disney) dropped 56% to $26.5M off its premiere. That’s a perfectly decent hold for a tentpole (Crystal Skull lost 55% in its 2008 Weekend 2, and this summer even Across the Spider-Verse was down 54% in its 2nd weekend), but with its colossal costs and subdued start, Dial may not get much past $200M in the US, and that won’t be enough to keep it from red ink. Nor is it likely to be rescued overseas, with $126.7M after a $31.8M weekend in 52 markets.
ELEMENTAL (Pixar/Disney) is proving surprisingly sturdy after its weak start, down 21% to $9.6M in its 4th weekend, and with no direct competition for several weeks, it could hit $150M in the US. The numbers are even better overseas, with $142.7M after a $30M weekend in 48 markets. Unfortunately, even $400M worldwide probably wouldn’t get the film to breakeven.
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE (Marvel/Sony Animation) passed Guardians 3 to become the #1 release of the summer with $357.6M (with several potential blockbusters still to come), down 33% to $8M in its 6th weekend. In addition, it was produced on one of the summer’s thriftiest big-studio budgets, so profits should be plentiful. The only down note is that international is lagging with $284.6M after a $9.2M weekend in 63 territories.
NO HARD FEELINGS (Columbia/Sony) dropped 33% to $5.3M in its 3rd weekend, on its way to an OK $55M in the US. The overseas total is lower at $27.2M.
TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE BEASTS (Hasbro/Paramount) was down 32% to $5M in its 5th weekend, and should end with around $160M in the US. The bigger money is overseas, where Beasts has $261M after a $7.6M weekend in 65 markets. The worldwide total is still likely to be around $150M below The Last Knight‘s $605.4M.
THE LITTLE MERMAID (Disney) shed 35% to $3.5M in its 7th weekend, and might stretch to $300M in the US. However, international is only at $253.1M, and this is another tentpole that may not earn back its costs.
RUBY GILLMAN: TEENAGE KRAKEN (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) fell 49% to $2.8M from last week’s premiere, and may not get much past a disastrous $20M in the US. Things were no better overseas, where the total is $15.1M.
ASTEROID CITY (Focus/Universal) dropped 48% to $2.2M in its 3rd weekend of wide release, and with VOD availability beginning next week, it may not get above $30M in the US. The overseas total is a quiet $14.9M.
THE FLASH (DC/Warners) continued to crash, down 58% to $2.2M in its 4th weekend, and unlikely to get much past an awful $110M in the US. Overseas is better but not by nearly enough with $156.4M.
PAST LIVES (A24) lost 40% to $1M, and might reach $12.5M in the US. With months to go until awards campaigning begins in earnest, it has a tough road ahead. The film hasn’t yet opened overseas.
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 (Marvel/Disney) fell 51% to $1M and as noted relinquished its summer crown. It should hit $360M before it exits theaters, a bit below Guardians 2‘s $389.8M. Overseas, the total is $482.3M, slightly higher than its predecessor’s $473.9M.
LIMITED RELEASE: THE LESSON (Bleecker Street) averaged $600 in a 268-theater opening. BIOSPHERE (IFC, also on VOD) averaged $700 at 48. AMANDA (Oscilloscope) averaged $4700 at 2. ONCE UPON A TIME IN UGANDA (Yellow Veil) averaged $1200 at 8.
NEXT WEEKEND: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART 1 (Skydance/Paramount) begins “early access” shows on Monday night, effectively giving it a 7-day opening frame. No studio is daring a competing wide release, although THEATER CAMP (Searchlight/Disney) will start its limited run.
About the Author
