The 27th weekend of the year is looking like an excellent $218 million for the top 12 films, up 20-35% from the comparable weekend the last few years.
Opening at around 3,900 theaters Wednesday (well above the top 10% theater count for opening weekend wide releases of 3,690 theaters), Despicable Me 2 from Universal should average $20,000 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $78 million opening weekend and $124 million for Wednesday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews are solidly positive at RottenTomatoes: 74% positive overall (a notch below the 81% positive mark for 2010’s Despicable Me). Mitch Salem’s review is here. Despicable Me 2 should be on track for $265 million domestic, a slight improvement from Despicable Me‘s $251.5 million domestic gross.
Opening at 3,700 theaters Wednesday, The Lone Ranger from Disney should average $8,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $32 million opening weekend and $56 million for Wednesday-Sunday). Bomb alert: 25% positive at RottenTomatoes so far (although 15% feels about right based on marketing and awful buzz). Mitch Salem’s negative review is here. The Lone Range should be on course for maybe $110 million domestic. Additionally, a paltry international gross because of the Western genre and the lame source material should guarantee a substantial loss on the studio’s books.
Opening at around 800 theaters Wednesday, Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain from Summit should average around $9,700 per theater for the Friday-Sunday portion of the long weekend, on its way to $25 million domestic for the comedy concert film.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 5-7, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Wed-Sun Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Despicable Me 2 | Uni | PG | 74% | 78.0 | 124 | 265 | |
| The Lone Ranger | Dis | PG13 | 25% | 32.0 | 56 | 110 | |
| Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain | Par | R | 50% | 7.5 | 12 | 25 | |
Monsters University should remain the top holdover, although The Heat should be close behind.
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RETURNING FILMS July 5-7, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Monsters University | Dis | -49% | 23.8 | 295 | |
| The Heat | Fox | -44% | 22.3 | 128 | |
| World War Z | Par | -48% | 15.5 | 197 | |
| White House Down | Sony | -52% | 12.5 | 75 | |
| Man of Steel | WB | -44% | 11.6 | 297 | |
| This Is the End | Sony | -36% | 5.6 | 104 | |
| Now You See Me | Summit | -32% | 3.8 | 123 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $162 million total, ranking 11th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $182 million (while 2011 was $146 million and 2010 was $184 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $218 million, up 35% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 20% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.6.2012
Amazing Spider-Man SONY PG13 Andrew Garfield Emma Stone
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $69 Actual: $62
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $299 Actual: $262
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $490
Savages UNI R Taylor Kitsch Blake Lively
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $57 Actual: $47
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $36
Katy Perry: Part of Me PAR PG Katy Perry
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
To Rome with Love SONY R Jesse Eisenberg Greta Gerwig
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $57
7.8.2011
Horrible Bosses WB R Jason Bateman Charlie Day
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $111 Actual: $117
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $92
Zookeeper SONY PG Kevin James Rosario Dawson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $71 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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