Articles

July 2, 2013
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions July 5-7

The 27th weekend of the year is looking like an excellent $218 million for the top 12 films, up 20-35% from the comparable weekend the last few years.

Opening at around 3,900 theaters Wednesday (well above the top 10% theater count for opening weekend wide releases of 3,690 theaters), Despicable Me 2 from Universal should average $20,000 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $78 million opening weekend and $124 million for Wednesday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews are solidly positive at RottenTomatoes: 74% positive overall (a notch below the 81% positive mark for 2010’s Despicable Me).  Mitch Salem’s review is hereDespicable Me 2 should be on track for $265 million domestic, a slight improvement from Despicable Me‘s $251.5 million domestic gross.

Opening at 3,700 theaters Wednesday, The Lone Ranger from Disney should average $8,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $32 million opening weekend and $56 million for Wednesday-Sunday). Bomb alert: 25% positive at RottenTomatoes so far (although 15% feels about right based on marketing and awful buzz).  Mitch Salem’s negative review is here.   The Lone Range should be on course for maybe $110 million domestic. Additionally, a paltry international gross because of the Western genre and the lame source material should guarantee a substantial loss on the studio’s books.

Opening at around 800 theaters Wednesday, Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain from Summit should average around $9,700 per theater for the Friday-Sunday portion of the long weekend, on its way to $25 million domestic for the comedy concert film.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

July 5-7, 2013

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Wed-Sun Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Despicable Me 2 Uni PG 74% 78.0 124 265
The Lone Ranger Dis PG13 25% 32.0 56 110
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain Par R 50% 7.5 12 25
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Monsters University should remain the top holdover, although The Heat should be close behind.

 

RETURNING FILMS

July 5-7, 2013

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Monsters University Dis -49% 23.8 295
The Heat Fox -44% 22.3 128
World War Z Par -48% 15.5 197
White House Down Sony -52% 12.5 75
Man of Steel WB -44% 11.6 297
This Is the End Sony -36% 5.6 104
Now You See Me Summit -32% 3.8 123

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $162 million total, ranking 11th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $182 million (while 2011 was $146 million and 2010 was $184 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $218 million, up 35% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 20% from the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

7.6.2012

Amazing Spider-Man SONY PG13 Andrew Garfield Emma Stone
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $69 Actual: $62
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $299 Actual: $262
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $490

Savages UNI R Taylor Kitsch Blake Lively
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $57 Actual: $47
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $36

Katy Perry: Part of Me PAR PG Katy Perry
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7

To Rome with Love SONY R Jesse Eisenberg Greta Gerwig
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $57

7.8.2011

Horrible Bosses WB R Jason Bateman Charlie Day
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $111 Actual: $117
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $92

Zookeeper SONY PG Kevin James Rosario Dawson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $71 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.