The arrival of THE AVENGERS means that, whatever the calendar may say, as far as Hollywood is concerned, summer has begun. Which in turn means that for the next several months, would-be blockbusters will be launched into multiplexes on a weekly basis. And that signals the start of SHOWBUZZDAILY‘S 2d Annual Fantasy Summer Movie League. As we did last year, we’ve drafted “teams” of upcoming summer films, and we’ll be dueling it out all summer based on their boxoffice results (quality doesn’t figure into this at all, all too appropriately in the case of many summer movies). This year, Mitch Metcalf and I are joined in the League by NBC Development Executive and film fan Andy Weil.A few details: the Movie Fantasy League counts domestic boxoffice only, earned between May 4 and Labor Day (September 3). We covered 24 summer titles, or 8 rounds of drafting, with whoever was first to pick in a given round becoming last in the next, and vice versa. Andy, as newcomer to these shores, went first, and Mr. Metcalf, as last year’s also-ran, got the 2d slot. As for me, in the 3rd slot lies the head that wears a crown. Here’s the way the draft went, with some commentary by the participants:
ROUND 1
Andy Weil (AW): THE DARK KNIGHT RISES (Warners – July 20). Has to be first pick for obvious reasons. The last one was a monster, and this one, even without the Heath Ledger effect, will be enormous. The new trailer is fantastic, and the IMAX grosses will hopefully pad the overall boxoffice.
Mitch Metcalf (MM): THE AVENGERS (Disney – May 4).
Mitch Salem (MS): THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN (Sony – July 3). I was hoping one of you would do something dumb to start things off, but no such luck. Admittedly, the new Spidey has no reason to exist just 10 minutes after the Tobey Maguire/Sam Raimi series ended, but Mark Webb is an interesting choice to direct, Garfield and Emma Stone seem to have chemistry, and this time the webs are slung in 3D.
ROUND 2
MS: BRAVE (Disney – June 22). Cars 2 was the worst picture Pixar’s ever made, and it still grossed 190M. From everything we’ve seen so far, Brave is going to be a lot better, and that means the money should roll in for half the summer.
MM: MEN IN BLACK 3 (Sony – May 25).
AW: TED (20th – July 13). Seth McFarlane has generated so much money for the Fox Broadcasting Company that I have a feeling it will translate into boxoffice dollars. Trailer didn’t do much for me, but everyone else I’ve spoken to thinks it’s hilarious.
ROUND 3
AW: ICE AGE – CONTINENTAL DRIFT (20th – July 13). Speaking of trailers that didn’t do much for me, here comes Ice Age: Continental Drift. Looking at the last film’s nearly $200 million gross, I’m thinking this ice age will never end.
MM: PROMETHEUS (20th – June 8)
MS: SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN (Universal – June 1): Damn it, Ted was going to be my clever pick. Ah, well. Snow White looks much cooler than it sounded like it was going to be.
ROUND 4
MS: THE BOURNE LEGACY (Universal – August 3). It doesn’t have Matt Damon, but based on the trailer, it’s been imprinted with the original trilogy’s DNA.
MM: MADAGASCAR 3 – EUROPE’S MOST WANTED (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount – June 8).
AW: GI JOE – RETALIATION (Paramount – June 29). I didn’t even see the first film, but with a $150 million gross, it’s hard to ignore the possibility that this could be another hit in the franchise. Plus, Bruce Willis may bring added star power to this installment.
ROUND 5
AW: BATTLESHIP (Universal – May 18). I’m going out on a limb since it’s not a sequel, but you can’t ignore the Transformers-esque trailers and the name recognition of the eponymous board game. It’s also hard to ignore the huge overseas grosses…
MM: ROCK OF AGES (Warners – June 15). Gulp.
MS: THAT’S MY BOY (Sony – June 15). A movie I don’t even want to see. It looks excruciating, but you can’t argue with Sandler’s track record over the years.
ROUND 6
MS: THE CAMPAIGN (Warners – August 10). A comedy that sounds more promising creatively than That’s My Boy–on paper, anyway: Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis star, and Jay Roach is the director behind HBO’s Game Change and Recount, so maybe he can bring some political sophistication to a mainstream studio comedy on the subject.
MM: DARK SHADOWS (Warners – May 11). I have no desire to see it, based on the trailer and TV spots. But then there’s Tim Burton and Johnny Depp. It can’t be Rum Diary bomb-worthy? Please…..
AW: NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH (20th – July 27). One can never count out Ben Stiller in a big budget
Fox comedy, though the teaser trailer was seriously lacking in comedy.
Fox comedy, though the teaser trailer was seriously lacking in comedy.
ROUND 7
AW: THE EXPENDABLES 2 (Lionsgate – August 17). Hopefully Arnold’s return to the big screen will net as much money as the first installment of this trash action franchise.
MM: TOTAL RECALL (Sony – August 3). Man, I feel like I am going to regret this Saturday morning after it opens.
MS: HOPE SPRINGS (Sony – August 10). I’m hoping Hope will be this year’s late-summer Meryl Streep hit, a la The Devil Wears Prada, Mamma Mia and Julie & Julia.
ROUND 8
MS: THE DICTATOR (Paramount – May 16). The complete opposite of Streep’s grace and gentility. Maybe the Sacha Baron Cohen fad has a few bucks left in it.
MM: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING (Lionsgate – May 18). With extremely limited enthusiasm.
AW: ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER (20th – June 22).
There are, to be sure, other potentially worthy films opening this summer, among them Woody Allen’s TO ROME, WITH LOVE (Sony Classics – June 22), Wes Anderson’s MOONRISE KINGDOM (Focus/Universal-May 25), Oliver Stone’s SAVAGES (Universal – July 6), SEEKING A FRIEND FOR THE END OF THE WORLD (Focus/Universal – June 22) with Steve Carell and Keira Knightley (and from the writer of Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist), and RUBY SPARKS (Fox Searchlight – July 25), from the directors of Little Miss Sunshine. Those, however, are likely to be indie-level successes at best (barring a surprise like Allen’s breakout hit Midnight in Paris last year).
So the teams worked out this way (titles in chronological order):
TEAM WEIL
BATTLESHIP
ABRAHAM LINCOLN: VAMPIRE HUNTER
GI JOE: RETALIATION
TED
ICE AGE: CONTINENTAL DRIFT
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES
NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH
THE EXPENDABLES 2
TEAM METCALF
THE AVENGERS
DARK SHADOWS
WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU’RE EXPECTING
MEN IN BLACK 3
PROMETHEUS
MADAGASCAR 3: EUROPE’S MOST WANTED
ROCK OF AGES
TOTAL RECALL
TEAM SALEM
THE DICTATOR
SNOW WHITE & THE HUNTSMAN
THAT’S MY BOY
BRAVE
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN
THE BOURNE LEGACY
HOPE SPRINGS
THE CAMPAIGN
Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all summer for updated fantasy results as the boxoffice rolls in!
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