July 29, 2012

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES July 27-29: Dark Knight Rises Slays the Openers But Still Consistently Lags Behind the Dark Knight

The Dark Knight Rises is now looking like a $64.1 million second weekend, down 60% from last weekend’s opening.  (The second weekend looks stronger than it appeared yesterday morning, but it still is significantly behind the pace for 2008’s The Dark Knight, which grossed $75.2 million in the second weekend — down 52% from its opening.)   By day in the second weekend, The Dark Knight Rises is behind the pace of The Dark Knight by several million dollars per day (similar to every day since the opening): the second Friday in release ($17.9 million for DKR versus $23.2 million for DK), the second Saturday ($25.1 million for DKR versus $28.3 million for DK), and the second Sunday (an estimated $21.1 million for DKR compared to $23.7 million for DK).  

The Watch now looks like a $13.0 million opening weekend, on pace for a domestic final of $32 million.  Step Up Revolution is slightly behind with an $11.8 million opening and a domestic final of $31 million.  

The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $129 million for the weekend, a little healthier than it seemed yesterday but still below the results for comparable weekends the past few years.


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  The Watch ($32 million) and Step Up Revolution ($31 million).

Second week films:  The Dark Knight Rises ($442 million, adjusted down significantly from last week’s initial estimate).

Second week films:  Ice Age: Continental Drift ($150 million, up slightly from last week’s estimate).

Third week films: The Amazing Spider-Man ($275 million, adjusted down for the second week in a row), Savages ($51 million, down slightly from last week) and Katy Perry: Part of Me ($27 million, down slightly again for the second week in a row).

Fourth week films: Ted ($219 million, down a touch from last week), Magic Mike ($116 million, down slightly from two weeks ago), and Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection ($65 million, even with last week).

Fifth week films: Brave ($232 million, even with last week).

Weekend 30: July 27-29, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Dark Knight Rises WB -60% 64.1 442
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox -35% 13.3 150
The Watch Fox 13.0 32
Step Up Revolution Sum 11.8 31
Ted Uni -26% 7.4 219
Amazing Spider-Man Sony -38% 6.8 275
Brave Dis -30% 4.2 232
Magic Mike WB -40% 2.6 116
Savages Uni -47% 1.8 51
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni -24% 1.4 45
TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection LG -41% 1.3 65


BATMAN TRACKWarner Brothers ($ millions)
Critics Positive Opening Weekend  Domestic Total  Overseas Total Worldwide Total
The Dark Knight Rises
7.20.2012 87% 160.9 442-est n/a n/a
The Dark Knight 7.18.2008 94% 158.4 533.3 468.6 1,001.9
Batman Begins 6.15.2005 85% 48.7 205.3 167.4 372.7
The Pre-Nolan Years
Batman and Robin 6.20.1997 13% 42.9 107.3 130.9 238.2
Batman Forever 6.16.1995 43% 52.8 184.0 152.5 336.5
Batman Returns 6.19.1992 78% 45.7 162.8 104.0 266.8
Batman 6.23.1989 71% 40.5 251.2 160.1 411.3

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $129 million total Friday-Sunday (a little better than it looked yesterday morning), now down 25% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 9% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #30 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $129 The Watch $13, Step Up Revolution $12
2011 $171 The Smurfs $36, Cowboys & Aliens $36, Crazy Stupid Love $19
2010 $136 Dinner for Schmucks $23, Cats & Dogs Revenge $12, Charlie St Cloud $12
2009 $114 Funny People $23, Aliens in the Attic $8
2008 $145 The Mummy: Tomb Dragon Emperor $40
Avg 2008-11 $141

Next Weekend

Opening wide next weekend are Total Recall from Sony and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days from 20th Century Fox (the third in the series).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($54.8 million opening weekend) and The Change-Up ($13.5 million).

International grosses will be updated later today.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.