Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #44 of 2013 looks like $116 million for the top 12 films, down 3% from the same weekend’s average in recent years.
Opening at 3,407 theaters Friday, Ender’s Game from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $9.9 million Friday and is on track for a $28.0 million opening weekend (very close to the $28.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,200 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is slightly positive (65% positive overall at RottenTomatoes but only 53% positive with top critics). Ender’s Game is headed for $79 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,736 theaters Friday, Free Birds from Relativity grossed $4.0 million Friday and is pacing toward a $15.5 million opening weekend (somewhat below our $16.5 million forecast). The film is headed for a not good three-day average of $4,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (22% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and only 16% positive with top critics). Free Birds is headed for $55 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,065 theaters Friday, Last Vegas from CBS Films grossed $5.1 million Friday and is headed toward a $15.3 million opening weekend (slightly above our $14.5 million forecast). The film is headed for a mediocre three-day average of $4,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (41% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 24% positive with top critics). Last Vegas is headed for $45 million total domestic.
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa has been upgraded to $108 million total domestic, while The Counselor has been downgraded slightly to $18 million.
| Weekend 44: November 1-3, 2013 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Ender’s Game | LG/Sum | [28.5] | 28.0 | 9.9 | 79 | |
| Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa | Par | [15.2] | 18.5 | 6.1 | 108 | |
| Free Birds | Rel | [16.5] | 15.5 | 4.0 | 55 | |
| Last Vegas | CBS | [14.5] | 15.3 | 5.1 | 45 | |
| Gravity | WB | [12.5] | 12.2 | 3.6 | 258 | |
| Captain Phillips | Sony | [8.5] | 8.0 | 2.4 | 104 | |
| 12 Years a Slave | Fox S | [4.2] | 4.4 | 1.3 | 25 | |
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 | Sony | [3.4] | 3.6 | .90 | 115 | |
| The Counselor | Fox | [3.3] | 3.2 | 1.0 | 18 | |
| Carrie | Sony | [2.7] | 3.2 | 1.0 | 37 | |
| Escape Plan | LG/Sum | [2.0] | 2.1 | .61 | 25 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $116 million total Friday-Sunday, down 3% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 7% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 44 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $116 | Ender’s Game $28.0, Free Birds $15.5, Last Vegas $15.3 | |
| 2012 | $125 | Wreck-It Ralph $49.0, Flight $24.9, Man with the Iron Fists $7/9 | |
| 2011 | $104 | Tower Heist $24.0, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas $13.0 | |
| 2010 | $143 | Megamind $46.0, Due Date $32.7, For Colored Girls $19.5 | |
| 2009 | $107 | A Christmas Carol $30.1, Men Who Stare at Goats $12.7, Fourth Kind $12.2 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $119 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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