Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #45 of 2013 looks like $160 million for the top 12 films, not the record we had forecast but still 21% above the recent average for this weekend.
Opening at 3,841 theaters Friday, Thor: The Dark World from Disney and Marvel grossed $31.8 million Friday and is on track for a $84.3 million opening weekend (below the bullish $95.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $21,900 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is all over the place (66% positive overall at RottenTomatoes but only 38% positive with top critics). Thor: The Dark World is headed for $197 million total domestic, somewhat above the $181.0 million domestic total for Thor which opened with $65.7 million the weekend of May 6-8, 2011.
Expanding to 1,200 theaters Friday, About Time from Universal grossed $1.5 million Friday and is pacing toward a $5.3 million first wide weekend (somewhat below our $6.5 million forecast). The film is headed for a mediocre $4,500 per theater average for the weekend. Through Sunday, the film should total $6.9 million, including the one-week preview at 175 theaters. Critical sentiment is fairly positive (66% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 53% positive with top critics). About Time is headed for $16 million total domestic.
Last Vegas (down 32% in its second weekend) has been upgraded to $62 million total domestic, while Ender’s Game (down 62% in its second weekend) has been downgraded to $64 million. Free Birds (down 28% this weekend) is holding relatively steady at $57 million total domestic.
| Weekend 45: November 8-10, 2013 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Thor: The Dark World | Dis | [95.5] | 84.3 | 31.8 | 197 | |
| Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa | Par | [11.1] | 11.4 | 3.4 | 111 | |
| Free Birds | Rel | [9.8] | 11.3 | 2.5 | 57 | |
| Last Vegas | CBS | [10.9] | 11.1 | 3.2 | 62 | |
| Ender’s Game | LG/Sum | [11.4] | 10.1 | 2.9 | 64 | |
| 12 Years a Slave | Fox S | [8.6] | 6.9 | 1.9 | 41 | |
| Gravity | WB | [7.8] | 8.6 | 2.3 | 259 | |
| About Time | Uni | [6.5] | 5.3 | 1.5 | 16 | |
| Captain Phillips | Sony | [5.5] | 5.7 | 1.6 | 107 | |
| Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 | Sony | [2.5] | 2.6 | .58 | 117 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $160 million total Friday-Sunday, up 21% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 2% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 45 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $160 | Thor: The Dark World $84.3, About Time $5.4 | |
| 2012 | $163 | Skyfall $88.4 | |
| 2011 | $126 | Immortals $32.2, Jack and Jill $25.0, J. Edgar $11.2 | |
| 2010 | $112 | Unstoppable $22.7, Skyline $11.7, Morning Glory $9.2 | |
| 2009 | $129 | 2012 $65.2, Pirate Radio $2.9 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $133 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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