The 51st weekend of the year is looking like $141 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, above last year’s similar weekend but -7% below the multi-year average for this weekend.
Opening at around 3,450 theaters today (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues from Paramount should average a solid $10,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $37.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Including Wednesday and Thursday business, Anchorman 2 should total $62 million through Sunday. Early reviews are positive RottenTomatoes: 76% positive so far. Anchorman 2 is on track for $190 million domestic, well above the $85.3 million domestic total for Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy (which opened July 9-11, 2004 with $28.4 million). The first Anchorman really found its legs and its cultural icon status in DVD, streaming and countless cable TV plays. You can’t accuse Paramount of being shy and timid with this film’s marketing, but with their tiny slate of films each title can get the attention of six films from any other studio.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, American Hustle from Sony should average an okay $6,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $16.5 million opening weekend). Early reviews are nearly unanimous: 95% positive. It is terrific and exactly the kind of film that will just pick up speed in the golden 12 Days of Christmas from December 25-January 5, when every day has a box office volume like a packed Saturday. American Hustle is on track for maybe $95 million domestic, with even more upside. Director David O. Russell’s personal best is $132.1 million domestic for Silver Linings Playbook. With some awards success, American Hustle can challenge that mark.
Opening at around 2,200 theaters Friday, Saving Mr. Banks from Disney should average a mediocre $5,200 per theater for the weekend (for an $11.5 million opening weekend). Reviews are solid at RottenTomatoes: 82% positive so far, but my guess is that much of its core audience will wait to see this film at home. Saving Mr. Banks is on track for maybe $75 million domestic.
Opening at around 3,200 theaters Friday, Walking with Dinosaurs from Fox should average a painful $2,700 per theater for the weekend (for an $8.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Walking with Dinosaurs is on track for maybe $35 million domestic. This film might have had a much better chance of breaking out on a less crowded late winter or early spring weekend. It feels oddly out of place in the rush of holiday quality.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND December 20-22, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues | Par | PG13 | 76% | 37.5 | 190 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | PG13 | 95% | 16.5 | 95 | |
| Saving Mr. Banks | Dis | 82% | 11.5 | 75 | ||
| Walking with Dinosaurs | Fox | n/a | 8.5 | 35 | ||
Among the holdovers, The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug will be the biggest by far, just behind the opening of Anchorman 2.
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RETURNING FILMS December 20-22, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | WB | -58% | 31.3 | 255 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | -32% | 15.3 | 218 | |
| Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas | LG/Sum | -50% | 8.0 | 44 | |
| The Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | -47% | 7.3 | 409 | |
| Thor: The Dark World | Dis | -47% | 1.5 | 209 | |
| Philomena | Weins | -29% | 1.3 | 19 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $152 million total, ranking 13th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $100 million (while 2011 was $114 million and 2010 was $132 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $141 million, down 7% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but up 40% from the comparable weekend last year. Remember the weekend grosses often look really soft on this weekend, but the weekend is just a warm-up to the long holiday period.
This Weekend Last Two Years
12.21.2012
Jack Reacher PAR PG13 Tom Cruise Rosamund Pike
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $89 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $136
This Is 40 UNI R Paul Rudd Leslie Mann
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $67
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
Monsters, Inc. 3D DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
The Guilt Trip PAR R Seth Rogen Barbra Streisand
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away 3D PAR PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $20
12.23.2011
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo SONY R Daniel Craig Rooney Mara
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $103
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $130
Adventures of Tintin PAR PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $92 Actual: $78
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $296
We Bought a Zoo FOX PG Matt Damon Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $88 Actual: $75
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $40
War Horse DIS PG13 Benedict Cumberbatch Tom Hiddleston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $94 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $98
Darkest Hour SUMMIT PG13 Emile Hirsch Olivia Thirlby
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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