Weekend #4 of 2014 is looking like $107 million for the top 12 films, up 7% from the average for this weekend the past few years.
Opening at around 2,700 theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), I, Frankenstein from Lionsgate/Summit should average a mediocre $5,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $15.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are non-existent: hiding a film from critics is never a good sign. I, Frankenstein is on track for around $35 million domestic.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND January 24-26, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| I, Frankenstein | LG/Sum | PG13 | n/a | 15.5 | 35 | |
Ride Along will be the top holdover this weekend and in all probability the top film overall. Devil’s Due is headed for the biggest percentage drop this weekend, thanks to its genre and an utter rejection by critics and audiences.
|
RETURNING FILMS January 24-26, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Ride Along | Uni | -47% | 22.0 | 125 | |
| Lone Survivor | Uni | -41% | 13.0 | 130 | |
| The Nut Job | OpenR | -40% | 12.4 | 78 | |
| Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit | Par | -49% | 8.8 | 55 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | -28% | 8.5 | 370 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | -27% | 7.2 | 145 | |
| August: Osage County | Weins | -38% | 4.7 | 39 | |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Par | -37% | 4.5 | 108 | |
| Devil’s Due | Fox | -65% | 3.0 | 15 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $100 million total, ranking 41st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $88 million (while 2012 was $98 million, 2011 was $92 million and 2010 was $110 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $107 million, 7% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and a big 21% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
1.25.2013
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters Par R Jeremy Renner Gemma Arterton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $170
Movie 43 Rel R Elizabeth Banks Steven Brill
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
Parker FilmDis R Jason Statham Jennifer Lopez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
1.27.2012
The Artist WEINS PG13 Jean Dujardin Berenice Bejo
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $44
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89
The Grey OPENROAD R Liam Neeson Dermot Mulroney
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $59 Actual: $51
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $26
Man on a Ledge SUMMIT PG13 Sam Worthington Elizabeth Banks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24
One for the Money LG PG13 Katherine Heigl Jason O’Mara
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $10
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
