Articles

January 22, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions JANUARY 24-25

Weekend #4 of 2014 is looking like $107 million for the top 12 films, up 7% from the average for this weekend the past few years.

Opening at around 2,700 theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), I, Frankenstein from Lionsgate/Summit should average a mediocre $5,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $15.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are non-existent: hiding a film from critics is never a good sign. I, Frankenstein is on track for around $35 million domestic.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

January 24-26, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
I, Frankenstein LG/Sum PG13 n/a 15.5 35
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Ride Along will be the top holdover this weekend and in all probability the top film overall.  Devil’s Due is headed for the biggest percentage drop this weekend, thanks to its genre and an utter rejection by critics and audiences. 

RETURNING FILMS

January 24-26, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Ride Along Uni -47% 22.0 125
Lone Survivor Uni -41% 13.0 130
The Nut Job OpenR -40% 12.4 78
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit Par -49% 8.8 55
Frozen 3D Dis -28% 8.5 370
American Hustle Sony -27% 7.2 145
August: Osage County Weins -38% 4.7 39
The Wolf of Wall Street Par -37% 4.5 108
Devil’s Due Fox -65% 3.0 15

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $100 million total, ranking 41st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $88 million (while 2012 was $98 million, 2011 was $92 million and 2010 was $110 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $107 million, 7% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and a big 21% above the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

1.25.2013

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters Par R Jeremy Renner Gemma Arterton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $170

Movie 43 Rel R Elizabeth Banks Steven Brill
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21

Parker FilmDis R Jason Statham Jennifer Lopez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

1.27.2012

The Artist WEINS PG13 Jean Dujardin Berenice Bejo
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $44
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89

The Grey OPENROAD R Liam Neeson Dermot Mulroney
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $59 Actual: $51
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $26

Man on a Ledge SUMMIT PG13 Sam Worthington Elizabeth Banks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24

One for the Money LG PG13 Katherine Heigl Jason O’Mara
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $10

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.