22 JUMP STREET (Sony/Columbia) is having the start merited by a sequel to a huge hit that’s getting ecstatic reviews in its own right. Based on preliminary numbers at Dateline and elsewhere, it had a $23-24M opening day (that includes $5.5M from Thursday night). That’s considerably better than the $19.6M start for Neighbors, which ran its weekend up to $49M, and the $20.6M Friday for Ted ($54.4M weekend), and far beyond the $13.2M opening day for 21 Jump Street. 22 should go over $60M for the weekend, maybe as high as $62M. 21 Jump Street made only 31% of its total box office overseas, and the sequel should do considerably better there as well.
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th) had a very solid $18M opening day (including $2M from Thursday night), much better than the $12.1M first day for the original Dragon, but also likely to be more front-loaded (Dragon climbed an impressive 45% on Saturday and totaled $43.7M over the weekend). If it follows the pattern of high-profile animated sequels like Monsters University (down 6% on Saturday) and Toy Story 3 (down 10%), it may only get to $48M or so for the weekend–on the other hand, just a few weeks ago, Maleficent, with a similar $24.3M opening day and a 6% Saturday bump, reached $69.4M for its opening weekend. Dragon is likely to be somewhere in between, settling in the low $50Ms, making it a win but not a blockbuster.
THE FAULT IN OUR STARS (20th) of course took a giant hit compared to its enormously front-loaded opening day, down to $6.5M from $26.1M. Nevertheless, it should top $20M for the weekend, and ultimately get to $120M in the US, a superb result for such a low-cost project. Last weekend’s other opening EDGE OF TOMORROW (Warners) dropped about 58% Friday-to-Friday for $4.5M. That should moderate as the weekend goes on, but it’s still going to drop close to 50% for $15M, an average hold that needed to be far better for it to have any chance of keeping a toehold in the market. Still to come: Edge‘s week 2 foreign numbers, especially in China, where Godzilla is reportedly living up to its title.
MALEFICENT (Disney) had a $6M day, down about 40% from last Friday, putting it in line for a $20M weekend. That’s better than expected, considering the direct competition it faces from Dragon 2.
X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST (20th) fell about 45% from last Friday to $2.5M, and on Saturday it should become the first summer movie to top $200M at the US box office. GODZILLA (Warners) dropped 50% to around $900K, and it will either just hit or just miss $200M by the end of its run, depending on how much Warners cares about reaching that mark.
A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST (Universal) plunged another disastrous 60% to $900K, heading for a $3.5M weekend, and NEIGHBORS (Universal) lost about one-third of its theatres and fell 50% to $800K and a $2.5M weekend. CHEF (Open Road) had a terrific hold, down just 20% from last Friday to $600K and a $2M weekend at only 1100 theatres.
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