This is going to be a soft weekend at the box office, since studios are largely saying out of the way of next week’s Transformers behemoth. Based on preliminary numbers at Deadline and elsewhere, THINK LIKE A MAN TOO (Screen Gems/Sony) will likely hold on for the weekend win, after a $12M Friday that includes $1.8M from Thursday night shows. That’s almost exactly the same as the $12.1M opening day for 2012’s Think Like A Man, but sequels are usually more front-loaded than their predecessors, so Too may not reach Think‘s $33.6M weekend. $31M is more likely, making the movie a steady success, but less profitable than the first, since production costs, while still moderate, were heavier this time around (to a reported $40M, which means $75-100M with marketing, depending on how widely the movie opens overseas), and total US gross (like the first Think, Too will probably make the great bulk of its money here) probably won’t hit Think‘s $91.5M.
JERSEY BOYS (Warners) would have needed much better reviews than it got to have a chance of selling many tickets this weekend. It’s at $4-5M after Friday, and unlikely to top $15M for the weekend–and also unlikely to have much foreign appeal, outside scattered nations like France with great admiration for director Clint Eastwood. Jersey cost $40M to produce (that number becomes $125M with worldwide marketing), and although as an older-skewing film it should stay in the market longer then teen-targeted movies, it still has a major challenge on its hands to break even.
22 JUMP STREET (Columbia/Sony) should lead the holdovers, down about 62% from last week’s opening day to $9M, with a weekend that will probably fall short of $30M. By comparison, 21 Jump Street dropped just 53% on its 2d Friday. 22 should still get to $110M by the end of this weekend, with a $150M US total in sight.
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2 (DreamWorks Animation/20th) had a disappointing 60% drop from last Friday to $7.3M, not a good result for a movie that was hoping to capitalize on the lack of family-movie competition. The first Dragon had a phenomenal hold, slipping just 8% on its 2d Friday, but the sequel isn’t nearly as stable. Dragon 2 is headed for a $25M weekend, and with only a $95M total by Sunday, it seems unlikely to even be close to the first Dragon‘s $217.6M US final tally.
MALEFICENT (Disney) was in front of the longer runs, down just 40% from last Friday to $3.8M, and now looking like a good bet to top $200M in the US after a $12M weekend that should bring it to $185M. EDGE OF TOMORROW (Warners) is also holding well, down just 33% from last Friday to $3M, although its weekend-to-weekend comparison won’t look as strong because of last week’s big Father’s Day take. Still, it should fall less than 50% for the weekend for $9-10M and a $75M US total. THE FAULT IN OUR STARS (20th) didn’t topple like it did last Friday, but it’s still down over 50% to $3M. However, its Sunday-to-Sunday comparison should look better, giving it a $8-9M weekend that will get it very close to $100M. X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST (20th) is still selling tickets, down just 33% from last Friday to $1.8M and with a $6M weekend in store that should bring it in shooting distance of $225M. GODZILLA (Warners) may drag its way to $200M after all, falling a milid 40% from last Friday to $560M and probably at $195M by Sunday.
CHEF (Open Road) continues to be the feel-good sleeper story of the summer, down less than 30% to $435K on Friday, with the potential to reach $20M+ before it’s done.
About the Author
