Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #27 of 2014 looks like a truly awful $126 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 26% below the norm for this weekend and well below the $153.2 million weekend for the top 12 the last time July 4 fell on a Friday (in 2008 when Hancock opened with $62.6 million Friday-Sunday and $103.9 million Wednesday-Sunday).
Opening at 3,465 theaters, Tammy from Warner Brothers grossed $6.4 million Friday and is on track for a $21.5 million opening three-day weekend (slightly below our $24.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,200 per theater for the weekend (barely above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Including Wednesday and Thursday, Tammy should total $33.2 million for the first five-days (quite close to our $32 million forecast). Critical sentiment is weak (27% positive overall and a similar 24% positive with top critics). Tammy is headed for $70 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,045 theaters, Earth to Echo from Relativity grossed $2.6 million Friday and is on track for a $9.7 million opening three-day weekend (near our $10.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a low three-day average of $3,000 per theater for the three-day weekend. Including Wednesday and Thursday, the film should total $14.9 million for the first five days (near our $14 million forecast). Critical sentiment is mediocre but the best of the bunch for this weekend (51% positive overall and 43% positive with top critics). Earth to Echo is headed for $28 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,045 theaters, Deliver Us From Evil from Sony/Screen Gems grossed $2.5 million Friday and is on track for a $9.2 million opening three-day weekend (way below our $18.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a similarly low three-day average of $3,000 per theater for the three-day weekend. Including Wednesday and Thursday, the horror film should total $14.7 million for the first five days (nowhere near our $24 million forecast). Critical sentiment is soft (32% positive overall and 30% positive with top critics). Deliver Us From Evil is headed for $26 million total domestic.
Expanding to 1,105 theaters, America: Imagine a World without Her from Lionsgate and Dinesh D’Souza is on track for a $3.2 million opening three-day weekend (way below our $7.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $2,900 per theater for the three-day weekend. Including Wednesday and Thursday and its small platform release last the week, the film should total $4.5 million through Sunday (well below our $10 million forecast). Critical sentiment is hostile (13% positive overall and a rare 0% positive with top critics). America is headed for $6 million total domestic.
Transformers: Age of Extinction is headed for $38.5 million this weekend (down 62% from last weekend and slightly below our $40.5 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for the latest Transformers has been adjusted down to $259 million. 22 Jump Street is headed for $9.8 million this weekend (down 38% from last weekend and slightly above our $9.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for 22 Jump Street has been adjusted up slightly to $191 million. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is headed for $10.0 million this weekend (down a modest 24% from last weekend and well above our $7.7 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for How to Train Your Dragon 2 has been adjusted up slightly to $172 million.
| Weekend 27: July 4-6, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | [40.5] | 38.5 | 10.6 | 259 | |
| Tammy | WB | [24.5] | 21.5 | 6.4 | 70 | |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | [7.7] | 10.0 | 2.8 | 172 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | [9.1] | 9.8 | 2.5 | 191 | |
| Earth to Echo | Rel | [10.5] | 9.7 | 2.6 | 28 | |
| Deliver Us From Evil | Sony | [18.5] | 9.2 | 2.5 | 26 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | [5.1] | 6.5 | 1.8 | 240 | |
| Jersey Boys | WB | [4.4] | 6.2 | 1.8 | 53 | |
| Think Like a Man Too | Sony | [5.4] | 4.8 | 1.3 | 65 | |
| Edge of Tomorrow | WB | [—] | 3.7 | 1.0 | 103 | |
| America | LG/Sum | [7.0] | 3.2 | n/a | 6 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $126 million total Friday-Sunday, down 26% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 43% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 27 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $126 | Tammy $21.5, Earth to Echo $9.7, Deliver Us from Evil $9.2 | |
| 2013 | $222 | Despicable Me 2 $83.5, The Lone Ranger $29.2, Kevin Hart Let Me Explain $10.1 | |
| 2012 | $182 | Amazing Spider-Man $62.0, Savages $16.0, Katy Perry Part of Me $7.1 | |
| 2011 | $146 | Horrible Bosses $28.3, Zookeeper $20.1 | |
| 2010 | $184 | Twilight Saga: Eclipse $64.8, The Last Airbender $40.3 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $171 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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