Weekend #27 of 2014 is looking like a not so hot $135 million for the top 12 films this weekend, -21% below the norm for this weekend. It certainly doesn’t help that Independence Day and all its distractions of picnics, grilling and fireworks falls on a Friday, but there are precious few movies opening or holding over that ignite much passion and excitement in the marketplace.
Opening at 3,400 theaters Wednesday (somewhat above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Tammy from Warner Brothers should average a somewhat above par $7,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $24.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Through Sunday, the five-day total for Tammy should be around $32 million. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are looking pretty weak: now 17% positive in early reviews, which is not going to help the film’s long-term playability. Tammy is on track for around $71 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $23 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $94 million.
Opening at 3,045 theaters Wednesday, Deliver Us from Evil from Sony/Screen Gems should average $6,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $18.5 million opening three-day weekend). Including early business Wednesday and Thursday, the film should total $24 million for the first five days through Sunday. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are looking pretty soft: 33% positive so far. Deliver Us from Evil is on track for around $53 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $35 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $88 million.
Opening at 3,229 theaters Wednesday, Earth to Echo from Relativity should average a sub-par $3,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $10.5 million opening three-day weekend). Including early business Wednesday and Thursday, the film should total $14 million for the first five days through Sunday. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are looking mediocre: 53% positive so far. Earth to Echo is on track for around $29 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross maybe $2 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $31 million.
Opening at 1,105 theaters Wednesday, America: Imagine a World without Her from Lionsgate/Summit should average $6,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $7 million opening three-day weekend). Including early business Wednesday and Thursday, the film should total around $10 for the first five days through Sunday. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are looking pretty weak: 25% positive so far. America is on track for around $21 million domestic. Overseas we see zero potential, giving it a worldwide box office target of $21 million. This compares to the $33.4 million domestic and worldwide gross for 2016: Obama’s America also from Dinesh D-Souza and released July 12, 2012.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 4-6, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Tammy | WB | R | 17% | 24.5 | 71 | |
| Deliver Us from Evil | Sony | R | 33% | 18.5 | 53 | |
| Earth to Echo | Rel | PG | 53% | 10.5 | 29 | |
| America | LG/Sum | PG13 | 25% | 7.0 | 21 | |
Among the holdovers, Transformers: Age of Extinction is the main draw, at least for another weekend or two.
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RETURNING FILMS July 4-6, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | -60% | 40.5 | 273 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | -43% | 9.1 | 188 | |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | -42% | 7.7 | 167 | |
| Think Like a Man Too | Sony | -48% | 5.4 | 67 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | -39% | 5.1 | 230 | |
| Jersey Boys | WB | -43% | 4.4 | 47 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $171 million total, ranking 7th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was a very good $222 million (while 2012 was $182 million, 2011 was $146 million and 2010 was $184 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $135 million, down -21% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -39% from the same weekend last year. This weekend is partly hobbled by the national holiday of Independence Day and all its distractions falling on Friday but also by a definite lack of compelling films.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.5.2013
Despicable Me 2 Uni PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $77 Actual: $84
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $352 Actual: $368
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $603
The Lone Ranger Dis PG13 Johnny Depp Armie Hammer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $33 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $97 Actual: $89
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $171
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain LG/Sum R Kevin Hart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
7.6.2012
Amazing Spider-Man SONY PG13 Andrew Garfield Emma Stone
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $51 Actual: $62
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $299 Actual: $262
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $490
Savages UNI R Taylor Kitsch Blake Lively
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $57 Actual: $47
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $36
To Rome with Love SONY R Jesse Eisenberg Greta Gerwig
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $57
Katy Perry: Part of Me PAR PG Katy Perry
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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