Weekend #30 of 2014 is looking like $128 million for the top 12 films this weekend, -13% below the norm for this weekend. Not a disaster like the previous three weekends (-27% to -34%), but the sixth down weekend in a row.
Opening at 3,172 theaters Friday (somewhat above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Lucy from Universal should average $11,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $35.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are a decent 67% positive so far. Lucy is on track for around $105 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $135 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $240 million.
Opening at over 3,500 theaters Friday, Hercules from Paramount should average $6,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $21.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is also positive in the early going: 71% positive so far. Hercules is on track for around $68 million domestic, with a potential for another $147 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $215 million.
Opening at over 1,800 theaters Friday, And So It Goes from Clarius Entertainment should average $2,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $3.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is weak: 33% positive so far in early reviews. And So It Goes is on track for around $9 million domestic, with a potential for another $1 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $10 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 25-27, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Lucy | Uni | R | 67% | 35.5 | 105 | |
| Hercules | Par | PG13 | 71% | 21.5 | 68 | |
| And So It Goes | Clar | PG13 | 33% | 3.5 | 9 | |
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes should be the top holdover again, dropping to #3 overall this weekend behind Lucy and Hercules. The Purge: Anarchy and Planes: Fire & Rescue are going to enjoy one weekend on the holdover list above $10 million each.
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RETURNING FILMS July 25-27, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Dawn of the Planet of the Apes | Fox | -45% | 19.9 | 231 | |
| The Purge: Anarchy | Uni | -61% | 11.8 | 82 | |
| Planes: Fire & Rescue | Dis | -40% | 10.5 | 69 | |
| Sex Tape | Sony | -51% | 7.1 | 49 | |
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | -43% | 5.6 | 252 | |
| Tammy | WB | -43% | 4.3 | 92 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | -32% | 3.2 | 198 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $148 million total, ranking 13th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $158 million (while 2012 was $126 million, 2011 was $171 million and 2010 was $136 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a wobbly $128 million, down -13% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -19% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.26.2013
The Wolverine Fox PG13 Hugh Jackman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $72 Actual: $53
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $148 Actual: $132
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $282
The Way, Way Back Fox PG13 Steve Carell Toni Collette
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
Fruitvale Station Weins R Michael B Jordan Octavia Spencer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
The To Do List CBS R Aubrey Plaza Bill Hader
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
7.27.2012
Step Up Revolution SUMMIT PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $105
The Watch FOX R Ben Stiller Vince Vaughn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $33
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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