Articles

July 23, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions JULY 25-27

Weekend #30 of 2014 is looking like $128 million for the top 12 films this weekend, -13% below the norm for this weekend.  Not a disaster like the previous three weekends (-27% to -34%), but the sixth down weekend in a row. 

Opening at 3,172 theaters Friday (somewhat above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Lucy from Universal should average $11,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $35.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are a decent 67% positive so far. Lucy is on track for around $105 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $135 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $240 million.

Opening at over 3,500 theaters Friday, Hercules from Paramount should average $6,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $21.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is also positive in the early going: 71% positive so far. Hercules is on track for around $68 million domestic, with a potential for another $147 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $215 million.  

Opening at over 1,800 theaters Friday, And So It Goes from Clarius Entertainment should average $2,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $3.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is weak: 33% positive so far in early reviews. And So It Goes is on track for around $9 million domestic, with a potential for another $1 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $10 million.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

July 25-27, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Lucy Uni R 67% 35.5 105
Hercules Par PG13 71% 21.5 68
And So It Goes Clar PG13 33% 3.5 9
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes should be the top holdover again, dropping to #3 overall this weekend behind Lucy and Hercules.  The Purge: Anarchy and Planes: Fire & Rescue are going to enjoy one weekend on the holdover list above $10 million each.

RETURNING FILMS

July 25-27, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox -45% 19.9 231
The Purge: Anarchy Uni -61% 11.8 82
Planes: Fire & Rescue Dis -40% 10.5 69
Sex Tape Sony -51% 7.1 49
Transformers: Age of Extinction  Par -43% 5.6 252
Tammy WB -43% 4.3 92
22 Jump Street Sony -32% 3.2 198

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $148 million total, ranking 13th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $158 million (while 2012 was $126 million, 2011 was $171 million and 2010 was $136 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a wobbly $128 million, down -13% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -19% from the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

7.26.2013

The Wolverine Fox PG13 Hugh Jackman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $72 Actual: $53
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $148 Actual: $132
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $282

The Way, Way Back Fox PG13 Steve Carell Toni Collette
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2

Fruitvale Station Weins R Michael B Jordan Octavia Spencer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1

The To Do List CBS R Aubrey Plaza Bill Hader
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

7.27.2012

Step Up Revolution SUMMIT PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $105

The Watch FOX R Ben Stiller Vince Vaughn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $33

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.