Weekend #37 of 2014 is looking like $65 million for the top 12 films this weekend, down 21% from the norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 3,500 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Dolphin Tale 2 from Warner Brothers should average a mediocre $5,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $19.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early critical sentiment is positive: 73% positive reviews so far. Dolphin Tale 2 is on track for around $75 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $30 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $105 million. This would be up slightly from the $95.4 million worldwide for Dolphin Tale (released 9.23.2011), grossing $72.3 million domestic and $23.1 million overseas.
Opening at around 2.000 theaters Friday, No Good Deed from Sony/Screen Gems should average a decent $7,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $16.0 million opening three-day weekend). No reviews yet for the film. No Good Deed is on track for around $42 million domestic. Overseas the film could be maybe $6 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $48 million.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND September 12-14, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Dolphin Tale 2 | WB | PG | 73% | 19.0 | 75 | |
| No Good Deed | Sony | PG13 | n/a | 16.0 | 42 | |
Guardians of the Galaxy remains the top holdover, but it slips well under the $10 million mark for the weekend.
|
RETURNING FILMS September 12-14, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | -35% | 6.8 | 335 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | -42% | 3.8 | 194 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | -34% | 3.7 | 79 | |
| If I Stay | WB | -40% | 3.4 | 54 | |
| The November Man | Rel | -38% | 2.7 | 27 | |
| When the Game Stands Tall | Sony | -33% | 2.3 | 31 | |
| The Hundred-Foot Journey | Dis | -27% | 2.3 | 56 | |
| The Giver | Weins | -33% | 2.3 | 44 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $83 million total, ranking 50th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $89 million (while 2012 was $69 million, 2011 was $86 million and 2010 was $87 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a tenuous $65 million, down 21% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 27% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9.13.2013
Insidious Chapter 2 FilmDis PG13 Rose Byrne Patrick Wilson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $40
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $84 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $78
The Family Rel R Robert DeNiro Michelle Pfeiffer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $31
9.14.2012
Resident Evil: Retribution Sony R Milla Jovovich Michelle Rodriguez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $42
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $197
Finding Nemo 3D Dis G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $59 Actual: $41
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
Last Ounce of Courage Picture House PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: n/a Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $2 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
