Weekend #39 of 2014 is looking like $97 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 3% from the norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 3,234 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Equalizer from Sony should average a solid $10,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $34.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early critical sentiment is only somewhat positive: 61% positive reviews so far. The Equalizer is on track for around $101 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $89 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $190 million.
Opening at around 3,464 theaters Friday, The Boxtrolls from Universal/Focus should average a sub-par $4,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $15.5 million opening three-day weekend). Positive critical sentiment so far: 72% positive among early reviews. The Boxtrolls is on track for around $71 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $86 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $157 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND September 26-28, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Equalizer | Sony | R | 61% | 34.5 | 101 | |
| The Boxtrolls | Uni/Foc | PG | 72% | 15.5 | 71 | |
Maze Runner is the class the holdovers by far.
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RETURNING FILMS September 26-28, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Maze Runner | Fox | -50% | 16.3 | 91 | |
| This Is Where I Leave You | WB | -44% | 6.5 | 34 | |
| A Walk Among the Tombstones | Uni | -53% | 6.1 | 42 | |
| Dolphin Tale 2 | WB | -43% | 5.1 | 50 | |
| No Good Deed | WB | -56% | 4.4 | 58 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | -34% | 3.5 | 335 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | -39% | 1.7 | 86 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | -42% | 1.6 | 192 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $95 million total, ranking 44th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $96 million (while 2012 was $107 million, 2011 was $90 million and 2010 was $86 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very average $97 million, up 3% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 1% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9.27.2013
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sony PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $41 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $120
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $155
Rush Uni R Chris Hemsworth Olivia Wilde
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $63
Don Jon Rel R Joseph Gordon-Levitt Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $30 Actual: $24
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
Baggage Claim Fox PG13 Paula Patton Derek Luke
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
9.28.2012
Hotel Transylvania Sony PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $43
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $140 Actual: $148
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $199
Looper Sony R Bruce Willis Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $66
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $110
Pitch Perfect Uni PG13 Anna Kendrick Brittany Snow
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $48
Won’t Back Down Fox PG Maggie Gyllenhaal Viola Davis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $5
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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