Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #12 of 2015 looks like $119 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, below the norms for this weekend.
Opening at 3,875 theaters Friday, Insurgent from Lionsgate/Summit is on track for a $50.1 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $59.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward $12,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is soft (33% positive overall and 33% positive with top critics). Insurgent is headed for $130 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,816 theaters Friday, The Gunman from Open Road Films is on track for a $5.0 million opening three-day weekend (below our $7.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a DOA $1,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very weak (13% positive overall and 19% positive with top critics). The Gunman is headed for $8 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,320 theaters Friday, Do You Believe? from Pure Flix is on track for a $3.8 million opening three-day weekend (below our $6.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak $2,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also weak (13% positive overall). Do You Believe? is headed for $8 million total domestic.
| Weekend 12: March 20-22, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Insurgent | LG/Sum | [59.0] | 50.1 | 21.2 | 130 | |
| Cinderella | Dis | [37.8] | 34.7 | 9.7 | 211 | |
| The Gunman | OpenRoad | [7.5] | 5.0 | 1.7 | 8 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | [4.4] | 4.9 | 1.3 | 131 | |
| Run All Night | WB | [6.3] | 4.5 | 1.4 | 29 | |
| Do You Believe? | PureFlix | [6.5] | 3.8 | 1.2 | 8 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | [4.0] | 3.4 | .97 | 34 | |
| Focus | WB | [3.3] | 3.2 | .93 | 57 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | [2.5] | 2.7 | .59 | 165 | |
| Chappie | Sony | [2.9] | 2.6 | .70 | 32 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | [2.4] | 2.2 | .63 | 45 | |
| American Sniper | WB | [—] | 1.6 | .43 | 360 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Cinderella is headed for $34.7 million this weekend (down -49% from last weekend and slightly below our $37.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $211 million.
Run All Night is headed for $4.5 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and below our $6.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $29 million.
Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $4.9 million this weekend (down -22% from last weekend and near our $4.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $131 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $119 million total Friday-Sunday, down -18% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -11% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 12 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $119 | Insurgent $50.1, The Gunman $5.0, Do You Believe? $3.8 | |
| 2014 | $133 | Divergent $54.6, Muppets Most Wanted $17.0, God’s Not Dead $9.2 | |
| 2013 | $130 | The Croods $43.6, Olympus Has Fallen $30.4, Admission $6.2 | |
| 2012 | $204 | The Hunger Games $152.5 | |
| 2011 | $109 | Limitless $18.9, The Lincoln Lawyer $13.2, Paul $13.0 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $144 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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