Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #17 of 2015 looks like $88 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, better than it looked yesterday ($81 million) but still below the norm for this weekend. A solid Saturday lifted the weekend estimates for most films at least somewhat, but the weekend rankings did not change materially.
Opening at 2,991 theaters Friday, The Age of Adaline from Lionsgate is now on track for a $13.4 million opening three-day weekend (now comfortably above our $10.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a slightly below average $4,500 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (53% positive overall and a softer 39% positive with top critics). Age of Adaline is headed for $41 million total domestic.
Expanding to 1,255 theaters Friday, Ex Machina from A24 is on track for a $5.4 million three-day weekend (above our $3.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a $4,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very strong (90% positive overall and 93% positive with top critics). Ex Machina is headed for $22 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,045 theaters Friday, Little Boy from Open Road Films is on track for a $2.8 million opening three-day weekend (very close to our $2.7 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a very weak $2,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is weak (14% positive overall and 10% positive with top critics). Little Boy is headed for $4 million total domestic.
| Weekend 17: April 24-26, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Furious 7 | Uni | [16.7] | 16.3 | 18.3 | 4.9/ 8.4 | 362 | |
| Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | Sony | [13.9] | 13.1 | 15.5 | 3.7/ 7.3 | 76 | |
| Age of Adaline | LG | [10.5] | 12.2 | 13.4 | 4.9/ 5.4 | 41 | |
| Home | Fox/DWA | [7.3] | 8.0 | 8.3 | 1.8/ 3.9 | 173 | |
| Unfriended | Uni | [7.3] | 6.0 | 6.2 | 2.0/ 2.8 | 37 | |
| Ex Machina | A24 | [3.5] | 4.9 | 5.4 | 1.7/ 2.3 | 22 | |
| The Longest Ride | Fox | [3.9] | 4.0 | 4.4 | 1.4/2.0 | 38 | |
| Get Hard | WB | [3.1] | 3.6 | 3.9 | 1.1/ 1.8 | 91 | |
| Monkey Kingdom | Dis | [3.1] | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.1/ 1.5 | 23 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | [3.5] | 3.1 | 3.5 | .92/ 1.6 | 33 | |
| Little Boy | Open Road | [2.7] | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4/ .80 | 4 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Furious 7 is headed for $18.3 million this weekend (down -37% from last weekend and now above our $16.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $362 million.
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 is headed for $15.5 million this weekend (down -35% from last weekend and now slightly above our $13.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $76 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $88 million total Friday-Sunday, down -17% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -14% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 17 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $88 | Age of Adaline $13.4, Ex Machina $5.4, Little Boy $2.8 | |
| 2014 | $100 | The Other Woman $24.8, Brick Mansions $9.5, The Quiet Ones $3.9 | |
| 2013 | $82 | Pain and Gain $20.2, The Big Wedding $7.6 | |
| 2012 | $97 | The Pirates! Band of Misfits $11.1, Five-Year Engagement $10.6 | |
| 2011 | $145 | TP’s Madea’s Big Happy Family $25.1, Water for Elephants $16.8 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $107 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
About the Author
