Articles

June 10, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 6.12-14.2015

Weekend #24 of 2015 is looking like $180 million for the top 12 films this weekend, somewhat above the norm for the same weekend the past few years.

Jurassic World from Universal should open with a $117.0 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are solid: 70% positive overall so far. Jurassic World is on track for around $295 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $565 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $860 million.

This would be below the $1.029 billion worldwide for Jurassic Park (released 6.11.1993 with $627 million domestic and $403 million overseas) but above the $619 million worldwide for The Lost World: Jurassic Park (released 5.23.1997 with $229 million domestic and $390 million overseas) and well above the $369 million worldwide for Jurassic Park III (released 7.18.2001 with $181 million domestic and $188 million overseas).

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

June 12-14, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Jurassic World Uni PG13 70% 117.0 295
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Spy joins San Andreas as the main holdovers providing support at the box office this weekend.

RETURNING FILMS

June 12-14, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Spy Fox -40% 17.6 104
San Andreas WB -49% 13.3 161
Insidious Chapter 3 Foc -65% 7.9 63
Pitch Perfect 2 Uni -42% 4.4 182
Entourage WB -60% 4.1 29
Mad Max: Fury Road WB -50% 3.9 157
Tomorrowland Dis -49% 3.7 93
Avengers: Age of Ultron Dis -47% 3.4 453
Aloha Sony -56% 1.4 19

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $162 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 11th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $180 million (while 2013 was $197 million, 2012 was $123 million and 2011 was $147 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $180 million, up 11% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and matching the same weekend last year. 

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

6.13.2014

How to Train Your Dragon 2 Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $72 Actual: $49
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $162 Actual: $177
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $442

22 Jump Street Sony R Jonah Hill Channing Tatum
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $53 Actual: $57
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $184 Actual: $192
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $140

6.14.2013

Man of Steel WB PG13 Henry Cavill Amy Adams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $105 Actual: $117
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $305 Actual: $291
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $377

This Is the End Sony R James Franco Jonah Hill
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $100 Actual: $101
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $25

Before Midnight Sony R Ethan Hawke Julie Delpy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $1
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $13 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.