Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #24 of 2015 looks like $269 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well above the norm for this weekend into record territory.
Opening at 4,273 theaters Friday, Jurassic World from Universal is on track for a $210.0 million opening three-day weekend according to the studio (miles above our pessimistic $117.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). That would be a record three-day opening weekend (see the current top 5 three-day openings below). I bet the actual numbers for the weekend on Monday will place Jurassic World at #2 or #3 on the all-time opening list, but whatever happens it’s a great start and exactly the jolt a flagging box office needed. The film is pacing toward an enormous $49,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is generally positive (71% positive overall and 63% positive with top critics). Jurassic World is headed for $528 million total domestic.
TOP 5 OPENING WEEKENDS (FRIDAY-SUNDAY) Excluding Jurassic World
1. $207.4 million Marvel’s The Avengers DIS May 4-6, 2012
2. $191.3 million Avengers: Age of Ultron DIS May 1-3, 2015
3. $174.1 million Iron Man 3 DIS May 3-5, 2013
4. $169.2 million Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 WB July 15-17, 2011
5. $160.9 million The Dark Knight Rises WB July 20-22, 2012
| Weekend 24: June 12-14, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Jurassic World | Uni | [117.0] | 210.0 | 82.8 | 528 | |
| Spy | Fox | [17.6] | 15.5 | 4.8 | 99 | |
| San Andreas | WB | [13.3] | 10.5 | 3.1 | 151 | |
| Insidious Chapter 3 | Foc/Uni | [7.9] | 8.0 | 2.7 | 53 | |
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | [4.4] | 5.8 | 2.0 | 187 | |
| Entourage | WB | [4.1] | 4.2 | 1.4 | 33 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | [3.9] | 4.0 | 1.2 | 154 | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | [3.4] | 3.7 | 1.1 | 453 | |
| Tomorrowland | Dis | [3.7] | 3.6 | 1.1 | 95 | |
| Love & Mercy | Road | [—] | 1.7 | n/a | n/a | |
| Aloha | Sony | [1.4] | 0.9 | n/a | 18 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Spy is headed for $15.5 million this weekend (down -47% from last weekend and somewhat below our $17.6 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $99 million.
San Andreas is headed for $10.5 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and somewhat below our $13.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $151 million.
Insidious Chapter 3 is headed for $8.0 million this weekend (down -65% from last weekend and near our $7.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $53 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $269 million total Friday-Sunday, up a stunning +66% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +49% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 24 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $269 | Jurassic World $210.0 | |
| 2014 | $180 | 22 Jump Street $57.1, How to Train Your Dragon 2 $49.5 | |
| 2013 | $197 | Man of Steel $116.6, This Is the End $20.7 | |
| 2012 | $123 | Rock of Ages $14.4, That’s My Boy $13.5 | |
| 2011 | $147 | Green Lantern $53.2, Mr Popper’s Penguins $18.4 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $162 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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