Weekend #28 of 2015 is looking like $194 million for the top 12 films this weekend, slightly above the norm for this weekend and way above last year’s very soft weekend (see comparisons below). [Note: a previous version of this post had incorrect estimated weekend totals.]
Minions from Universal should open with a $108 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are positive but not particularly strong: 71% positive overall so far. Minions is on track for around $295 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $440 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $735 million.
This would be below the $971 million worldwide total for Despicable Me 2 (released on 7.13.2013) with $368 million domestic and $603 million overseas but above the $543 million worldwide total for Despicable Me (released 7.9.2010) with $251 million domestic and $292 million overseas.
The Gallows from Warner Brothers should open with a $11.5 million three-day weekend. Slightly above average critical reception: 57% positive reviews so far. The Gallows is on track for around $23 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $27 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $50 million.
Self/Less from Focus should open with a $6.0 million three-day weekend. Critical reception is soft: 30% positive reviews so far. Self/Less is on track for around $10 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $12 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $22 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 10-12, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Minions | Uni | PG | 71% | 108.0 | 295 | |
| The Gallows | WB | R | n/a | 11.5 | 23 | |
| Self/Less | FOC | PG13 | 30% | 6.0 | 10 | |
Inside Out and Jurassic World remain the top holdovers this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS July 10-12, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Jurassic World | Uni | -42% | 17.1 | 662 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | -48% | 15.4 | 350 | |
| Terminator: Genisys | Par | -56% | 11.8 | 95 | |
| Magic Mike XXL | WB | -46% | 6.9 | 61 | |
| Ted 2 | Uni | -55% | 5.0 | 82 | |
| Spy | Fox | -33% | 3.5 | 114 | |
| Max | WB | -48% | 3.5 | 41 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $183 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 5th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $139 million (while 2013 was $188 million, 2012 was $154 million and 2011 was $252 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $194 million, up +6% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up a huge +40% from the same weekend last year, which was really sub-par. [Current year weekend totals have been corrected.]
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
7.11.2014
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox PG13 Andy Serkis Gary Oldman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $70 Actual: $73
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $236 Actual: $208
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $500
Begin Again Weins R Keira Knightly Mark Ruffalo
Opening Weekend — Forecast: n/a Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $47
7.12.2013
Pacific Rim WB PG13 Charlie Hunnam Idris Elba
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $37
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $102
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $309
Grown Ups 2 Sony PG13 Adam Sandler Kevin James
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $43 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $125 Actual: $134
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $113
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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