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July 8, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 7.10-12.2015

Weekend #28 of 2015 is looking like $194 million for the top 12 films this weekend, slightly above the norm for this weekend and way above last year’s very soft weekend (see comparisons below).  [Note: a previous version of this post had incorrect estimated weekend totals.]

Minions from Universal should open with a $108 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are positive but not particularly strong: 71% positive overall so far. Minions is on track for around $295 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $440 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $735 million.

This would be below the $971 million worldwide total for Despicable Me 2 (released on 7.13.2013) with $368 million domestic and $603 million overseas but above the $543 million worldwide total for Despicable Me (released 7.9.2010) with $251 million domestic and $292 million overseas.

The Gallows from Warner Brothers should open with a $11.5 million three-day weekend. Slightly above average critical reception: 57% positive reviews so far. The Gallows is on track for around $23 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $27 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $50 million.

Self/Less from Focus should open with a $6.0 million three-day weekend. Critical reception is soft: 30% positive reviews so far. Self/Less is on track for around $10 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $12 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $22 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

July 10-12, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Minions Uni PG 71% 108.0 295
The Gallows WB R n/a 11.5 23
Self/Less FOC PG13 30% 6.0 10
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Inside Out
and Jurassic World remain the top holdovers this weekend.

RETURNING FILMS

July 10-12, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Jurassic World Uni -42% 17.1 662
Inside Out Dis -48% 15.4 350
Terminator: Genisys Par -56% 11.8 95
Magic Mike XXL WB -46% 6.9 61
Ted 2 Uni -55% 5.0 82
Spy Fox -33% 3.5 114
Max WB -48% 3.5 41

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $183 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 5th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $139 million (while 2013 was $188 million, 2012 was $154 million and 2011 was $252 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $194 million, up +6% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up a huge +40% from the same weekend last year, which was really sub-par.   [Current year weekend totals have been corrected.]

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

7.11.2014

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox PG13 Andy Serkis Gary Oldman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $70 Actual: $73
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $236 Actual: $208
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $500

Begin Again Weins R Keira Knightly Mark Ruffalo
Opening Weekend — Forecast: n/a Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $47

7.12.2013

Pacific Rim WB PG13 Charlie Hunnam Idris Elba
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $37
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $102
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $309

Grown Ups 2 Sony PG13 Adam Sandler Kevin James
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $43 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $125 Actual: $134
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $113

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.