>The Help remains the lone sign of strength at the box office. Down only 2% from the Tropical Storm Irene-dampened box office last weekend, The Help has been upgraded again to $155 million estimated total domestic gross. The Debt looks like the best of the three new openers, with almost $10 million this Friday-Sunday weekend and a final gross estimate of $37 million (with more upside). Apollo 18 and Shark Night 3D are headed for opening weekends of around $8 million and final grosses well under $20 million. Overall the weekend is looking like it will be down 1% from this weekend last year.
The Debt is opening above forecast ($2.6 million Friday for an expected $9.5 million this weekend versus a $6 million forecast). The Helen Mirren Nazi-hunting period piece is headed for $37 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday. Critics nationwide are broadly positive about the film (77% positive at RottenTomatoes) so we could some adjustments upward in the final gross in the next few weeks if the film shows legs with audiences.
Apollo 18 is opening well below forecast ($2.8 million Friday for an estimated $8.2 million opening weekend, compared to an $13.5 million prediction). The “found footage” horror film is on track for $17 million in North America. Critics nationwide have been dumping on the film (only 23% positive at RottenTomatoes).
Shark Night 3D is also opening below forecast ($2.8 million Friday for an expected $8.0 million this weekend versus a $9.5 million forecast). The movie is headed for $16 million in North America. Critics are not happy with Shark Night (26% positive at RottenTomatoes).
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions and Update.
The Help continues its very solid run with a fourth weekend drop of only 2%.
September 2-4, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final*
The Help (DW/Dis) [$14 ] $14.3 $ 3.6 $155+
The Debt (Focus) [$ 6 ] $ 9.5 $ 2.6 $ 37
Apollo 18 (Wein) [$13.5] $ 8.2 $ 2.8 $ 17
Shark Night 3D (Rel) [$ 9.5] $ 8.0 $ 2.8 $ 16
Colombiana (Sony) [$ 6.5] $ 7.5 $ 2.0 $ 40+
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$ 7 ] $ 7.3 $ 1.8 $180
Our Idiot Brother (Wein) [$ 5 ] $ 5.3 $ 1.4 $ 31
Don’t Be Afraid Dark (FD)[$ 5 ] $ 5.0 $ 1.4 $ 27
Spy Kids All Time (Wein) [$ 5 ] $ 4.5 $ 1.1 $ 36
The Smurfs (Sony) [$ 4.5] $ 4.0 $ 0.9 $143
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Limited Releases
Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (partial results to come):
— Seven Days in Utopia (drama) at 561 theaters
— Saving Private Perez (foreign) at 161 theaters
— A Good Old Fashioned Orgy (comedy) at 143 theaters
— Bodyguard (foreign) at 89 theaters
— Bol (drama) at 38 theaters
— Love Crime (foreign) at 5 theaters
— Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life (foreign) at 3 theaters
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $80 million total, down 1% from the same calendar weekend last year when The American, Machete and Going the Distance opened.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #35
Volume (millions)
2011 $ 80 (+16% vs 2007-10 average; -1% vs 2010)
2007-10
Avg $ 69 Movies Opening That Weekend
2010 $ 81 The American $13, Machete $11, Going Distance $7
2009 $ 81 All About Steve $11, Gamer $9, Extract $4
2008 $ 50 Bangkok Dangerous $8
2007 $ 65 3:10 to Yuma $14, Shoot ‘Em Up $6
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Contagion from Warner Brothers, Warrior from Lionsgate, and Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star from Sony. Those movies will be compared to Resident Evil: Afterlife ($27 million opening weekend).
Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
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