As with Spectre 2 weeks ago, THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY PART 2 (Lionsgate) is making a tremendous amount of money in its opening weekend–but not as much as had been expected in light of what its franchise predecessor had earned. According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, Mockingjay 2 will have a $47M launch, including $16M from Thursday night screenings. That’s down about 15% from the first Mockingjay‘s $55.1M start (which was itself lower than the $67.3M for the first Hunger Games and $71M for Catching Fire), and may translate into a $104M weekend and a US total that doesn’t hit $300M. The production cost here was far lower than Spectre‘s, so profitability isn’t going to be an issue, but like so many other franchise entries, it will hope to recoup a US shortfall with increased international returns, and since Mockingjay 2 is opening virtually worldwide this weekend (including China), by Sunday we’ll have a fairly clear idea of its prospects.
The weekend’s other openings are puny. THE NIGHT BEFORE (Columbia/Sony) earned $3.8M on Friday for a potential $10-11M weekend, which would make it (discounting the oddity of The Interview and some of his more indie offerings) the lowest opening for Seth Rogen since the $11M for 2009’s Observe and Report. As for THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES (IM Global/STX), it was clear something was amiss with the thriller since it failed to appear at any fall film festivals, despite the awards-friendly presence of Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman and Julia Roberts, not to mention the pedigree of being based on an Oscar-winning Best Foreign Film. Sure enough, reviews were weak and opening day was $2.5M, which may give it $7.5M for the weekend.
Although SPECTRE (MGM/Columbia/Sony) led the holdovers, it’s showing disappointingly little traction with audiences, dropping 57% from last Friday to $4.3M, for a weekend that may not hit $15M. That would put it on track for a US total of $180-190M, as much as 40% below the $304M for Skyfall, and barely more than the $168.4M for the little-loved Quantum of Solace. It, too, will look overseas for assistance. Given this result, and Daniel Craig’s expressed reluctance to play the role again, it seems likely a new Bond era will begin with the next entry.
THE PEANUTS MOVIE (Blue Sky/20th) held fairly well, down 47% from last Friday to $2.9M, with a $13M weekend that will leave it just shy of $100M in the US. The problem for Peanuts is that this is its last weekend before Pixar/Disney’s The Good Dinosaur arrives on Wednesday to poach its audience, so its likelihood of reaching $150M is shrinking, even with Thanksgiving ahead.
Last week’s openings aren’t getting the word of mouth they’d hoped for. LOVE THE COOPERS (CBS/Lionsgate) fell 58% from last Friday to $1.2M, far worse than the 37% drop for the 2d Friday of Last Vegas, the older-skewing title the studio had tried to use as a comp. At this rate, Coopers may not get past $4M for the weekend or a $25M total. THE 33 (Alcon/Warners) sank 60% from last Friday to $735K, and isn’t likely to get much farther than $15M in the US, which won’t even pay its domestic marketing bill.
SPOTLIGHT (Open Road) had an OK expansion to a semi-wide release at 598 theatres, heading for a weekend per-theatre average in the $5K neighborhood. That’s about as well as Birdman did when it reached 460 theatres, and like Birdman, Spotlight will need lots of awards help to hold its grip through the holidays. The Imitation Game, by comparison, had a $10K average when it widened to 747 theatres.
One problem for Spotlight is that new awards contenders will be popping up every week. This time it’s CAROL (Weinstein), which is riding splendid reviews to an excellent $60K weekend average at 4 NY/LA arthouses. LEGEND (Universal), on the other hand, shows less promise, heading for a $20K average at 4.
BY THE SEA (Universal) expanded to 126 theatres, and shouldn’t have bothered, as the weekend average will be a dismal $1500 or so.
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