May 18, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #20 of 2013 looks like $145 million for the top 12 films, somewhat above the same weekend last year but slightly below the four-year average for the weekend.  Star Trek Into Darkness opened at #1 for the weekend but is performing well below our expectations.

Opening at 3,762 theaters Thursday, Star Trek Into Darkness from Paramount grossed $13.5 million late Wednesday-Thursday and $22 Friday and is on track for a $68 million opening weekend (well below the $86 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging $18,100 per theater for the weekend (over three times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), and critical sentiment is very good: 87% positive at RottenTomatoes (with top critics slightly lower at 80% positive).  Star Trek Into Darkness is headed for a good but not great $215 million total domestic.

Weekend 20

May 17-19, 2013

($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Star Trek Into Darkness Par [86.0] 68.0 22.0 215
Iron Man 3 Dis [32.3] 36.0 9.5 422
Great Gatsby WB [22.5] 23.0 7.7 145
Pain and Gain Par [2.6] 2.9 .88 51
42 WB [3.0] 2.8 .75 98
The Croods DW/Fox [2.5] 2.6 178
Oblivion Uni [1.9] 2.3 .63 92
Peeples LG [2.4] 2.2 .62 11
Mud Roadside [2.0] 2.2 21
The Big Wedding LG [1.4] 1.2 .32 20

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $145 million total Friday-Sunday, down 5% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 7% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #20 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $145 Star Trek Into Darkness $68
2012 $136 Battleship $25.5, The Dictator $17.4, What to Expect When… $10.5
2011 $159 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $90.2
2010 $143 Shrek Forever After $70.8, MacGruber $4.0
2009 $170 Night at the Museum II $54.2, Terminator Salvation $42.6, Dance Flick $10.6
Avg 2009-12 $152

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.