Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 1.19.2020

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OPENINGS:  For a year lean on powerhouse franchises and expected to be tough at the box office, Hollywood’s 2020 is off to a heartening start.  Following last week’s strong performance by 1917, this week’s BAD BOYS FOR LIFE (Columbia/Sony) blasted through expectations with a $59.2M 3-day weekend ($68M with the Monday holiday), and with no other major action title due until Birds of Prey on February 7, it could reach $200M in the US.  That would be well above the $138.6M for Bad Boys 2 in 2003.  Things were softer overseas, with $38.6M in 39 markets, but For Life should be solidly profitable on $200M in production/marketing costs, and Sony has already let it be known that a 4th installment is in the works.

DOLITTLE (Perfect World/Universal) arrived on a tide of the worst buzz and critical reaction since… well, since Cats just last month.  Its $22.5M 3-day weekend ($30M with Monday) would be respectable for a live-action family title, except for the fact that Dolittle carries $300M+ in total costs, giving it no hope of swimming past red ink.  There was little help overseas with $17.2M in 46 territories, although the financiers can take a shred of hope from the fact that many major international markets are still to open.

HOLDOVERS:  Considering the holiday weekend and its healthy crop of Oscar nominations, the 40% drop to $22.1M ($27M with Monday) for 1917 (Universal) was only so-so, and the film bears around $200M in total costs.  Still, it should easily top $125M in the US, with obvious upside if it wins Best Picture, and it has $62M overseas after a $26M weekend in 37 markets, with China among the openings still to come.

JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL (Columbia/Sony) dipped 32% to $9.6M ($12.5M with Monday) in its 6th weekend, and may stretch to $300M in the US.  It’s at $438M overseas after a $17M weekend in 65 territories.  If it reaches $800M worldwide, that will be a very reasonable 17% drop from the last chapter.

STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER (Lucasfilm/Disney) fell 45% to $8.4M ($10M with Monday) in its 5th weekend, on its way to $510M in the US, down 18% from The Last Jedi.  It has $534.6M overseas after a $10.9M weekend.  If it passes the worldwide $1.073B of Toy Story 4, it would be #6 among 2019 releases, but it would slip 2 slots if it earns $10M less.

JUST MERCY (Warners) dropped 38% to $6M ($7.2M with Monday) from last week’s wide opening, and with no Oscar attention, it will hope to reach $35M in the US.  It’s also opened in 8 international markets with $1.3M.

LITTLE WOMEN (Columbia/Sony) dipped just 24% to $5.9M ($7.5M with Monday) in its 4th weekend, and has a chance of getting to $100M in the US.  It has $44.3M after a $6.2M weekend in just 13 overseas territories.

KNIVES OUT (Lionsgate) continued to be the season’s word of mouth champion, down 24% to $4.3M ($5.3M with Monday) in its 8th weekend, with a US total over $150M dead ahead.  It’s also no slouch overseas, with $131M after a $3.3M weekend in 65 markets.

LIKE A BOSS (Paramount) crashed by 62% to $3.8M ($4.5M with Monday) despite the holiday weekend, and may not see $25M in the US.  It has $1M in limited international release

FROZEN 2 (Disney) slowed by 37% to $3.7M ($5M with Monday) in its 9th weekend, still en route to $475M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at a massive $936.2M after a $12M weekend.

UNDERWATER (TSG/20th/Disney) fell 49% to $3.6M ($4.2M with Monday) from last week’s opening, and won’t get much past $20M in the US.

Several older Best Picture nominees expanded their theatre count to capitalize on the attention, none with breakout 3-day results:  PARASITE (Neon) with $1.8M in 843 theatres, JOJO RABBIT (Searchlight/Disney) with $1.4M in 1005, FORD VS FERRARI (20th/Disney) with $1.1M in 1080, and ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD (Columbia/Sony) with $300K at 705 (the latter is also available on homevideo).

LIMITED RELEASE:  WEATHERING WITH YOU (GKIDS), just barely below wide release at 486 theatres, earned a healthy $1.7M.  LES MISERABLES (Amazon) expanded to 42 with a $1600 per-theatre average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The arrivals are Guy Ritchie’s THE GENTLEMEN (STX), the thriller THE TURNING (Universal), and war story THE LAST FULL MEASURE (Roadside).