Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 1.5.2020

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OPENINGS:  THE GRUDGE (Columbia/Sony) tried to take advantage of Hollywood’s early January fallow period, but at $11.3M, the reboot of a remake found few takers, far below the $29.6M for 2018’s Insidious: The Last Key, and also less than the $13.7M for 2017’s Underworld: Blood Wars and the $15M for 2015’s The Woman In Black 2:  Angel Of Death.  The extremely low exit poll results indicate word of mouth will be awful, so this Grudge may not get past $25M in the US.  Internationally, things are similarly dim with $5.8M in 29 territories.  Reports are that while production costs were low, they weren’t at the microscopic level of some Blumhouse releases, so the ink here will likely be blood-red.

THE GENTLEMEN (STX) doesn’t open in the US until January 24, but it had a fair start in 3 markets with $7.6M.

HOLDOVERS:  As we predicted last week, STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER (Lucasfilm/Disney) ran out of holiday before it could catch up to The Last Jedi.  But we didn’t expect the bottom to fall out of the film’s box office, a 53% drop to $33.8M that was the worst crash in the Top 10 (yes, worse than Cats).  It now isn’t clear whether Skywalker will get within $100M of Last Jedi‘s $620.2M US total, putting it in the #3 slot for 2019 releases behind Endgame and The Lion King.  Business is holding up somewhat better internationally, where Skywalker is at $468M after a $50.5M weekend, with Korea (where Last Jedi earned $8M) still on deck.  A $1.1B worldwide total would place it at #6 among 2019 releases, but if it can’t reach $1.05B, it would slip to #9.

JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL (Columbia/Sony) dropped 25% to $26.5M, and might be able to reach $300M in the US, which would be down about 25% from its predecessor.  Overseas, it’s at $374M after a $42.4M weekend in all major markets except Brazil (where the last installment earned $24M).

LITTLE WOMEN (Columbia/Sony) has become a genuine hit, down 19% to $13.6M, and on track to hit $85M in the US, with upside if Oscar nominations materialize.  It has $20M overseas after a $9.5M weekend in limited release.

As long as you don’t consider the all-CG version of The Lion King to be “animated,” FROZEN 2 (Disney) became the world’s biggested animated hit this weekend, not adjusted for inflation.  In the US, it declined 33% to $11.3M, on its way to $480M, which would be 20% better than the first Frozen.  Overseas, it’s at $875.3M after a $42.4M weekend, also above its forebear.

SPIES IN DISGUISE (Blue Sky/20th/Disney) lost 25% to $10.1M, on track for a quiet $70M in the US.  It’s similarly undistinguished overseas, where it has $42.1M.

KNIVES OUT (MRC/Lionsgate) continued to amaze with the best hold in the Top 10, down just 9% to $9M in its 6th weekend, and now on target for $150M in the US.  It also has $117.2M overseas (fun footnote:  Rian Johnson’s thriller has earned more in China than Rise of Skywalker), and unsurprisingly there’s already talk of a Hercule Poirot-like movie franchise.

UNCUT GEMS (A24) dropped 18% to $7.8M, belying its low exit polls, and it now seems likely to get past $50M in the US, making it A24’s biggest hit.  If it reaches $52M, it will also be Adam Sandler’s most successful non-comedy, and it’s another film that will be hoping for some attention from the Oscar nominations.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas.

BOMBSHELL (Lionsgate), held well, down 15%, but its $4.1M weekend still puts its trajectory at a mild $35M in the US, unless awards can lift it up.  It’s barely opened overseas.

CATS (Universal) fell 46% to $2.6M, and may not see $30M in the US.  Things are slightly better overseas, where it has $32.4M, but it’s likely to lose close to $100M for its backers.

RICHARD JEWELL (BRON/Warners) failed to generate positive word of mouth, down 45% to $1.7M, with little chance of getting much past $25M in the US.  It has $2M in sparse overseas release.

LIMITED RELEASE:  1917 (Universal) held beautifully, actually up 2% from last week’s opening for a $54K per-theatre weekend average at 11 as it heads into wide release next weekend.  A HIDDEN LIFE (Fox Searchlight/Disney) added 31 theatres for a total of 149 and averaged $1800.  JUST MERCY (Warners) stayed at 4 theatres and dropped to a $19K average.  THE SONG OF NAMES (Sony Classics) averaged $4K at 17.  CLEMENCY (Neon) expanded to 9 with a $3600 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  New releases remain slow, with the comedy LIKE A BOSS (Paramount) and the thriller UNDERWATER (20th/Disney) arriving, along with the wide releases of 1917 and Just Mercy.