OPENINGS: The traditional horror movie start of the new year was provided by NIGHT SWIM (Blumhouse-Atomic Planet/Universal), although at $12M it was the lowest such arrival since The Grudge started with $11.4M in 2020. The final number for that one was $21.2M, and Night Swim probably won’t be much higher. The international launch was $5.7M in 36 territories.
HOLDOVERS: Although the 2023 holiday season lacked a true blockbuster, WONKA (Warners) continued to be the big winner, down 36% from the 3-day holiday weekend to $14.4M and on a trajectory to pass $200M in the US. It’s even bigger overseas, with $301.2M after a $28.9M weekend in 77 markets.
AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM (DC/Warners) dropped 42% to $10.6M in its 3rd weekend, and may reach an anemic $135M in the US. Although it’s stronger overseas with $234.8M after a $30.3M weekend in 77 regions, that won’t be enough to bring it to profit on $350M+ in production/marketing costs.
MIGRATION (Illumination/Universal) lost 40% to $10.3M, on its way to top $100M in the US. That’s low for an Illumination release, but with a relatively low production budget it should do all right. The international total is $72.9M to date.
Although its numbers aren’t enormous, the success story of the season may be ANYONE BUT YOU (Columbia/Sony), which has found its audience in a big way, actually rising 9% in its post-holiday weekend to $9.5M. It now seems likely to reach $75M in the US, on a reportedly low production budget. It’s in limited release overseas, and has $14.7M thus far.
THE BOYS IN THE BOAT (MGM/Amazon) dipped 28% to $6M, and may hit $50M in the US. It hasn’t yet opened outside the US.
Continuing to plunge after its splashy Christmas Day opening (which was boosted by heavy group sales), THE COLOR PURPLE (Warners) fell 59% to $4.8M, and may not get past $70M in the US on $150M+ in production/marketing costs. Overseas, Warners is putting all its eggs in the Oscar bucket, holding off distribution until the weekend before the nominations are announced.
THE IRON CLAW (A24) had a strong hold, down just 11% to $4M. That still puts it on track for a modest $40M US total, and its appeal internationally (where it hasn’t yet opened) is a question mark.
FERRARI (Neon) shed 36% to $2.5M, and may not see $25M in the US. (You know things are bad when the pundits start citing sources touting its likely strength in home viewing.) The bulk of the budget is reportedly being carried by international distributors, and things there are even worse with $7.4M to date.
The unconventional POOR THINGS (Searchlight/Disney) is faring nicely, down just 12% to $2M, and it should pass the $20M mark that seems to be a threshold for independent cinema these days. Limited international distribution is at $1M.
THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS & SNAKES (Lionsgate) lost 36% to $1.8M in its 8th weekend, en route to $170M in the US. That would be far below any of the films in the original Hunger Games series (the lowest was $281.7M), but Songbirds & Snakes was reportedly delivered with lower costs. The overseas total is $164.4M.
GODZILLA MINUS ONE (Toho) declined 24% to $1.7M in its 6th weekend, and may reach $55M in the US, with an additional $39.1M overseas.
THE BOY AND THE HERON (GKids) dipped 28% to $1.7M, on its way to $45M in the US, on top of $97.5M overseas ($56.2M of that from Japan).
In its 8th weekend, TROLLS BAND TOGETHER (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) finally passed $100M in the US, after a 38% drop to $1.2M. It has an almost identical $101M overseas.
LIMITED RELEASE: AMERICAN FICTION (Orion/MGM/Amazon) expanded well to 114 theaters with an $8800 weekend per-theater average. ALL OF US STRANGERS (Searchlight/Disney) averaged $10K at 42. MEMORY (Ketchup) had a $4700 average at 14. The 3D documentary ANSELM (Janus) averaged $2500 at 16. FREUD’S LAST SESSION (Sony Classics) averaged $3400 at 5. THE TEACHER’S LOUNGE (Sony Classics) had a $4400 average at 3. THE CRIME IS MINE (Music Box) had an $1800 average at 4.
NEXT WEEKEND: The studios get more serious about the new year, with 3 wide releases: MEAN GIRLS (Paramount), THE BEEKEEPER (MGM/Amazon) and THE BOOK OF CLARENCE (TriStar/Sony).
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