OPENINGS: In the US, NO TIME TO DIE (UA/MGM) opened at $56M, at the low end of expectations–and “expectations” are usually already set low so that the press will report that a film has “overperformed”–and below the last three Bond films (Quantum of Solace $67.5M, Skyfall $88.4M, Spectre $70.4M). Obviously the pandemic is a factor here, particularly because the Bond franchise is centered on older viewers who are still not fully back at theaters. Nevertheless, No Time To Die was surprisingly front-loaded (it had a 22% Friday-to-Saturday drop, compared to 16% for Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which has a much younger audience that would normally be expected to show up early), and that suggests problems with word of mouth. If No Time To Die ends up around $175M in the US, it’s going to need a huge performance overseas to earn back its massive $350M+ production and marketing costs. To date it has $257.3M internationally after a $89.5M weekend in 66 markets, with China still to come. (Unlike other franchises, Bond is only moderately big in China, where Spectre earned $83.5M.)
In the technically-wide-release category, LAMB (A24) opened at 583 theaters with $1M, which isn’t much but also is in sort of a category of its own as a brooding subtitled Icelandic dark fable. It’s reportedly on a short theatrical-only window.
HOLDOVERS: When Black Widow dropped by 68% in its 2nd weekend, its day-and-date release on Disney+ was taken as the end of Hollywood civilization as we know it. Yet VENOM: LET THERE BE CARNAGE (Columbia/Marvel/Sony) fell 65% to $32M despite its loudly-proclaimed theatrical-only release, and those precious 3 percentage points seem to have redeemed the industry’s entire conventional release strategy, as the pundits aren’t concerned by Carnage‘s drop at all. Carnage actually had a steeper fall than the first Venom (56%), and despite opening $10M higher than its predecessor, it now seems likely to fall behind that film’s $213.5M US total. Carnage also has $43.9M overseas to date, after a $24.8M weekend in 13 territories. (The first Venom had an impressive $642.6M international total.)
THE ADDAMS FAMILY 2 (UA/MGM, also on VOD) had a moderate $42% drop to $10M, and may reach $60M in US theaters, compared to $103.1M for the first Addams cartoon. It has $4.6M overseas.
SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE 10 RINGS (Marvel/Disney) dipped 31% to $4.2M in its 6th weekend, on its way to $225M in the US. It has $189.1M overseas, and may never reach China.
THE MANY SAINTS OF NEWARK (New Line/Warners, also on HBO Max) plunged 69% to $1.5M, and probably won’t get much past $10M in US theaters, while the fragmentary reports available suggest it performed at only a mildly higher level on HBO Max. (However, it apparently lifted reruns of The Sopranos quite a bit.) It also has $2.9M overseas.
FREE GUY (20th/Disney, also available for digital purchase) dropped 43% to $1.3M, in its 9th weekend, and should reach $125M in the US, with $206.4M overseas.
DEAR EVAN HANSEN (Universal) stumbled to $1M in its 3rd weekend, a 60% drop, and may see $17.5M in the US when it’s done. It hasn’t begun its international release.
LIMITED RELEASE: MASS (Bleecker Street) launched at 4 theaters with a soft $3600 weekend per-theater average.
NEXT WEEKEND: HALLOWEEN (Universal, also on Peacock) isn’t expected to hit the $76.2M heights of its predecessor’s opening. THE LAST DUEL (20th/Disney) may have a tough time, aimed as it is at older audiences and with mixed reviews thus far.
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