Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 10.13.2019

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OPENINGS:  THE ADDAMS FAMILY (BRON/MGM) proved to be a still-fertile source of IP with a solid $30.3M US start, and the cartoon should benefit from closed schools on Columbus Day for a robust 4-day weekend total.  Production costs were reportedly on the low end of animation, so a 3x multiple to $90M should go a long way to profit.  However, it’s going to face immediate direct competition from next week’s Maleficent 2, which may hold it back.  Overseas release hasn’t yet begun.

GEMINI MAN (Fosun/Alibaba/Skydance/Paramount) is facing production and worldwide marketing costs in the neighborhood of $250M, and its studio-estimate $20.5M opening  was a bad start, especially since the terrible reviews (26% on Rotten Tomatoes) suggest that word of mouth won’t be its friend.  Nor can it look for much relief overseas, where it has only $39M after a $31.1M weekend in 53 markets.  It still has China ahead, but barring a bonanza there, it’s heading for a sizable loss.

Nobody’s heart seemed to be in JEXI (CBS/Lionsgate), which got awful reviews (Rotten Tomatoes score:  13%) and received little marketing support.  It also had no star value in front of or behind the camera, and the result was a terrible $3.1M weekend.  There haven’t been any international openings to date, and it’s not clear whether any are planned.

HOLDOVERS:  With no meaningful new competition, JOKER (BRON/Village Roadshow/DC/Warners) had a sensational hold, down just 43% to $55M from its blockbuster opening.  That compared to a 51% Weekend 2 drop for the first It, 56% for Venom, and 57% for Deadpool and Logan.  It was even stronger than the 45% Weekend 2 drop for Black Panther, and it tied the drop for Wonder Woman.  That suggests a US total that could go well past $300M.  Things were equally strong overseas, where Joker is at $351.2M after a $123.7M weekend in 79 territories.  A worldwide total of $800M+ seems to be in its grasp, although it will be dinged a bit by the fact that it’s currently unlikely to be released in China.

ABOMINABLE (Pearl/DreamWorks/Universal) dropped 48% to $6.2M in its 3rd weekend, on its way to $60M in the US.  Its bigger problem is overseas, where it’s at $60.1M after a $14.1M weekend in 52 markets.  Crucially, that includes an extremely disappointing $13.7M from China, and since that was the film’s key market, its future is dim.

DOWNTON ABBEY (Focus/Universal) glided to a 39% drop to $4.9M in its 4th weekend, possibly en route to $95M in the US.  In addition, it has $70M overseas after a $4.1M weekend in 34 territories.

HUSTLERS (STX) will pass $100M in the US next week, after a 40% Weekend 5 drop to $3.9M.  It’s less vibrant overseas, with $23.6M after a $3.9M weekend in 34 markets.

JUDY (Roadside) increased its theatre count by about 10%, which helped to cushion its decline to 29% and $3.3M.  It should reach a sturdy $25M in the US, although it runs the danger of running out of box office steam early in awards season.  It hasn’t yet opened overseas.

IT: CHAPTER TWO (New Line/Warners) lost 39% to $3.2M in its 6th weekend, and may reach $215M in the US.  It’s at $238.5M overseas after a $2.3M weekend in 75 territories.

AD ASTRA (Regency/20th/Disney) fell 54% to $1.9M in its 4th weekend, and won’t get much past $50M in the US.  The expensive, ambitious sci-fi saga also failed to ignite overseas, where it’s at $73.3M after a $2.9M weekend in 43 markets.

LIMITED RELEASE:  PARASITE (NEON) had a spectacular start, with a per-theatre average of $125K in 3 NY/LA arthouses, and it will hope to gradually widen to be a significant awards season player.  PAIN & GLORY (Sony Classics) expanded fairly well to 23 theatres with a $13K average.  WHERE’S MY ROY COHN (Sony Classics) averaged $1800 at 57.  LUCY IN THE SKY (Fox Searchlight/Disney) widened disastrously to 198 with an average that didn’t hit $400.

NEXT WEEKEND:  As noted, MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL (Disney) arrives, along with ZOMBIELAND 2: DOUBLE TAP (Columbia/Sony).  Limited releases include film festival favorites JOJO RABBIT (Fox Searchlight/Disney) and THE LIGHTHOUSE (A24).